怀俄明州南部复杂地形的启发式和贝叶斯龙卷风预测

Thomas A. Andretta
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引用次数: 0

摘要

为气象科学界提出了一种启发式技术,用于怀俄明州南部复杂地形的龙卷风预报。这种新方法是基于季节性龙卷风气候学和从地面和多普勒天气雷达源获得的观测中尺度条件。该方法应用于2018年春季和2019年夏季在怀俄明州奥尔巴尼县形成龙卷风的四次严重雷暴事件。龙卷风的演变与沿干线的水汽辐合轴形成的超级单体雷暴以及在复杂地形上与气团拉伸和剪切的上升气流相互作用有关。将贝叶斯定理应用于每种情况,与漩涡检测相关的后验概率从低到高(30到80%)。
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Heuristic and Bayesian Tornado Prediction in Complex Terrain of Southern Wyoming
A heuristic technique for tornado forecasting in the complex terrain of southern Wyoming is proposed for the weather sciences community. This novel approach is based on seasonal tornado climatology and observed mesoscale conditions obtained from in-situ surface and Doppler weather radar sources. The methodology is applied to four severe thunderstorm events which formed tornadoes during the spring and summer months of 2018 and 2019 in Albany County of Wyoming. Tornadic evolution is associated with supercell thunderstorms forming along moisture convergence axes of a dryline and updraft interactions with air mass stretching and shearing over the complex terrain. Applying Bayes’ theorem to each case, there is a low to high (30 to 80%) posterior probability associated with vortex detection.
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