金沙江流域气候引起的生态水文年际变化及其评价

IF 2.2 4区 工程技术 Q2 ENGINEERING, CIVIL Journal of Hydrologic Engineering Pub Date : 2023-11-01 DOI:10.1061/jhyeff.heeng-5906
Xiaopei Ju, Dong Wang, Yuankun Wang, Vijay P. Singh, Along Zhang, Pengcheng Xu, Jichun Wu, Tao Ma, Jiufu Liu, Jianyun Zhang
{"title":"金沙江流域气候引起的生态水文年际变化及其评价","authors":"Xiaopei Ju, Dong Wang, Yuankun Wang, Vijay P. Singh, Along Zhang, Pengcheng Xu, Jichun Wu, Tao Ma, Jiufu Liu, Jianyun Zhang","doi":"10.1061/jhyeff.heeng-5906","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"This study develops a four-module-based multimodel framework, coupled with the projections of general circulation models (GCMs), a hydrological model (SWAT), and two sets of evaluation indicators [Indicators of Hydrologic Alteration (IHA) and River Regime Index (RRI)], to systematically quantify the response of ecohydrological regimes to climatic change. The Jinsha River Basin (JRB) was selected as a target area for both framework verification and application analysis because of its precious natural conditions, privileged abundant hydropower, and extremely rich fish resources. Results revealed that: (1) temperature and precipitation in the JRB would show increasing trends to varying degrees in the future. The increase in temperature would be much higher than that in precipitation, and the increment would be more significant during the end of the century (2068–2097). (2) The future runoff in the JRB may face an overall decreasing trend, leading to more and more frequent drought disasters. (3) The disturbances in the ecohydrological regime would result in more concentrated runoff and smoother hydrological pulse fluctuations in the JRB, meaning human-assisted participation would be required for the conservation of reproduction and development of ecological resources like Coreius guichenoti. Our findings suggest that effective management of future watershed resources can only be accomplished if an in-depth and comprehensive hydrological evaluation of changing climate is made, and the protection and sustainable development of ecological resources of the JRB in the future will require the participation of stakeholders. Figuring out the alteration in ecohydrological regimes under natural variation and its potential hazards may guide the degree of human participation in futural river protection.","PeriodicalId":54800,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Hydrologic Engineering","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":2.2000,"publicationDate":"2023-11-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"0","resultStr":"{\"title\":\"Climate-Induced Annual and Interannual Processual Shifts in Ecohydrological Regimes and Their Evaluations in Jinsha River Basin, China\",\"authors\":\"Xiaopei Ju, Dong Wang, Yuankun Wang, Vijay P. Singh, Along Zhang, Pengcheng Xu, Jichun Wu, Tao Ma, Jiufu Liu, Jianyun Zhang\",\"doi\":\"10.1061/jhyeff.heeng-5906\",\"DOIUrl\":null,\"url\":null,\"abstract\":\"This study develops a four-module-based multimodel framework, coupled with the projections of general circulation models (GCMs), a hydrological model (SWAT), and two sets of evaluation indicators [Indicators of Hydrologic Alteration (IHA) and River Regime Index (RRI)], to systematically quantify the response of ecohydrological regimes to climatic change. The Jinsha River Basin (JRB) was selected as a target area for both framework verification and application analysis because of its precious natural conditions, privileged abundant hydropower, and extremely rich fish resources. Results revealed that: (1) temperature and precipitation in the JRB would show increasing trends to varying degrees in the future. The increase in temperature would be much higher than that in precipitation, and the increment would be more significant during the end of the century (2068–2097). (2) The future runoff in the JRB may face an overall decreasing trend, leading to more and more frequent drought disasters. (3) The disturbances in the ecohydrological regime would result in more concentrated runoff and smoother hydrological pulse fluctuations in the JRB, meaning human-assisted participation would be required for the conservation of reproduction and development of ecological resources like Coreius guichenoti. Our findings suggest that effective management of future watershed resources can only be accomplished if an in-depth and comprehensive hydrological evaluation of changing climate is made, and the protection and sustainable development of ecological resources of the JRB in the future will require the participation of stakeholders. Figuring out the alteration in ecohydrological regimes under natural variation and its potential hazards may guide the degree of human participation in futural river protection.\",\"PeriodicalId\":54800,\"journal\":{\"name\":\"Journal of Hydrologic Engineering\",\"volume\":null,\"pages\":null},\"PeriodicalIF\":2.2000,\"publicationDate\":\"2023-11-01\",\"publicationTypes\":\"Journal Article\",\"fieldsOfStudy\":null,\"isOpenAccess\":false,\"openAccessPdf\":\"\",\"citationCount\":\"0\",\"resultStr\":null,\"platform\":\"Semanticscholar\",\"paperid\":null,\"PeriodicalName\":\"Journal of Hydrologic Engineering\",\"FirstCategoryId\":\"1085\",\"ListUrlMain\":\"https://doi.org/10.1061/jhyeff.heeng-5906\",\"RegionNum\":4,\"RegionCategory\":\"工程技术\",\"ArticlePicture\":[],\"TitleCN\":null,\"AbstractTextCN\":null,\"PMCID\":null,\"EPubDate\":\"\",\"PubModel\":\"\",\"JCR\":\"Q2\",\"JCRName\":\"ENGINEERING, CIVIL\",\"Score\":null,\"Total\":0}","platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Journal of Hydrologic Engineering","FirstCategoryId":"1085","ListUrlMain":"https://doi.org/10.1061/jhyeff.heeng-5906","RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q2","JCRName":"ENGINEERING, CIVIL","Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0

摘要

本研究建立了一个基于四个模块的多模型框架,结合环流模型(GCMs)预估、水文模型(SWAT)和两套评价指标[水文变化指标(IHA)和河情指数(RRI)],系统地量化了生态水文制度对气候变化的响应。金沙江流域因其得天独厚的自然条件、丰富的水电资源和极其丰富的鱼类资源,被选定为框架验证和应用分析的目标区域。结果表明:(1)JRB未来气温和降水均有不同程度增加的趋势。气温的增加幅度将远远大于降水的增加幅度,并且在本世纪末(2068-2097)的增加幅度将更为显著。(2)未来JRB径流量总体呈减少趋势,导致干旱灾害越来越频繁。(3)生态水文状态的扰动将导致JRB径流更加集中,水文脉冲波动更加平滑,这意味着对Coreius guichenoti等生态资源的保护和繁殖发展需要人工参与。研究结果表明,只有对气候变化进行深入和全面的水文评价,才能实现对未来流域资源的有效管理,未来JRB生态资源的保护和可持续发展需要利益相关者的参与。弄清自然变化下生态水文状况的变化及其潜在危害,可以指导人类参与未来河流保护的程度。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
查看原文
分享 分享
微信好友 朋友圈 QQ好友 复制链接
本刊更多论文
Climate-Induced Annual and Interannual Processual Shifts in Ecohydrological Regimes and Their Evaluations in Jinsha River Basin, China
This study develops a four-module-based multimodel framework, coupled with the projections of general circulation models (GCMs), a hydrological model (SWAT), and two sets of evaluation indicators [Indicators of Hydrologic Alteration (IHA) and River Regime Index (RRI)], to systematically quantify the response of ecohydrological regimes to climatic change. The Jinsha River Basin (JRB) was selected as a target area for both framework verification and application analysis because of its precious natural conditions, privileged abundant hydropower, and extremely rich fish resources. Results revealed that: (1) temperature and precipitation in the JRB would show increasing trends to varying degrees in the future. The increase in temperature would be much higher than that in precipitation, and the increment would be more significant during the end of the century (2068–2097). (2) The future runoff in the JRB may face an overall decreasing trend, leading to more and more frequent drought disasters. (3) The disturbances in the ecohydrological regime would result in more concentrated runoff and smoother hydrological pulse fluctuations in the JRB, meaning human-assisted participation would be required for the conservation of reproduction and development of ecological resources like Coreius guichenoti. Our findings suggest that effective management of future watershed resources can only be accomplished if an in-depth and comprehensive hydrological evaluation of changing climate is made, and the protection and sustainable development of ecological resources of the JRB in the future will require the participation of stakeholders. Figuring out the alteration in ecohydrological regimes under natural variation and its potential hazards may guide the degree of human participation in futural river protection.
求助全文
通过发布文献求助,成功后即可免费获取论文全文。 去求助
来源期刊
Journal of Hydrologic Engineering
Journal of Hydrologic Engineering 工程技术-工程:土木
CiteScore
4.60
自引率
4.20%
发文量
83
审稿时长
4.5 months
期刊介绍: The Journal of Hydrologic Engineering disseminates information on the development of new hydrologic methods, theories, and applications to current engineering problems. The journal publishes papers on analytical, numerical, and experimental methods for the investigation and modeling of hydrological processes.
期刊最新文献
Quantifying the Impact of Climate Change on Peak Stream Discharge for Watersheds of Varying Sizes in the Coastal Plain of Virginia Seasonal Salinity Trends in Central and Southern Biscayne Bay, Florida Optimization of Precipitation Monitoring Network via Robust Empirical Orthogonal Function Analysis with QR Column Pivoting Potential Soil Erosion Mapping and Priority-Based Adaption Strategies Using RUSLE and Geospatial Techniques Application of Hybrid AI Models for Accurate Prediction of Scour Depths under Submerged Circular Vertical Jet
×
引用
GB/T 7714-2015
复制
MLA
复制
APA
复制
导出至
BibTeX EndNote RefMan NoteFirst NoteExpress
×
×
提示
您的信息不完整,为了账户安全,请先补充。
现在去补充
×
提示
您因"违规操作"
具体请查看互助需知
我知道了
×
提示
现在去查看 取消
×
提示
确定
0
微信
客服QQ
Book学术公众号 扫码关注我们
反馈
×
意见反馈
请填写您的意见或建议
请填写您的手机或邮箱
已复制链接
已复制链接
快去分享给好友吧!
我知道了
×
扫码分享
扫码分享
Book学术官方微信
Book学术文献互助
Book学术文献互助群
群 号:481959085
Book学术
文献互助 智能选刊 最新文献 互助须知 联系我们:info@booksci.cn
Book学术提供免费学术资源搜索服务,方便国内外学者检索中英文文献。致力于提供最便捷和优质的服务体验。
Copyright © 2023 Book学术 All rights reserved.
ghs 京公网安备 11010802042870号 京ICP备2023020795号-1