Polish Takeover Regulation: The Recent Chapter in the Long Story of Flawed Rules, Legislative Hesitation and Policy Mistakes

Abstract This paper presents a critical examination of recent Polish takeover regulation from a perspective of evolution of capital market law in Poland. The study is based on both legal analysis and an empirical and statistical approach. Firstly, as a starting point, it briefly describes the mandatory bid rule and Takeover Bids Directive as well as the development of early Polish provisions. Secondly, the paper elaborates on the normative model of takeovers, which was in force until 2022. Using a case study and a comprehensive statistical examination of all mandatory bids carried out between 2008 and 2017, it shows how the unusual and incorrect legislative structure of two thresholds of control (33% and 66% of votes) allowed the actual circumvention of mandatory bids, to the detriment of minority shareholders. The paper also describes political considerations and political influences on the legislative process, which led to the failure of the 2014–2015 takeover law proposal. The core of the paper is devoted to the current takeover rules. Statistical research of ownership structures in Poland shows that the threshold of control set at 50% of votes is undoubtedly too high, which entails risks to investor protection that may arise from the adopted model. Based on research on significant holdings in Polish listed companies, the paper further elaborates on the notion of control over a public company and proposes a regulatory utility function to determine the desired threshold of control. This leads to the conclusion that the optimal regulatory threshold of control, given the characteristics of the Polish capital market, is 30% of votes.