Climate Change Effects on Phosphorus Loss from Agricultural Land to Water: A Review

Purpose of Review

Phosphorus (P) loss from agricultural land to surface water is a leading cause of water quality deterioration. We reviewed the climate change impacts on sources and transport of P and how they can exacerbate P loss from agricultural soils to waterways.

Recent Findings

The effects of climate change include extreme precipitation events, increased temperature, elevated atmospheric carbon dioxide (eCO₂), and saltwater intrusion induced by sea level rise. Extreme precipitation (EP) events cause accelerated transport of dissolved and particulate P from soils, exacerbated after the application of fertilizers and manures or drought. The unpredictability of EP leads to greater incidental P losses as appropriately timing nutrient applications is more challenging. Increased soil and air temperatures influence soil microbial communities and P-solubilizing microbes, but their effects on P losses are uncertain. Likewise, eCO₂ may increase plant growth, P demand, and soil P cycling, but its impact on P losses is unclear. Saltwater intrusion caused by sea level rise can further mobilize P in high (legacy) P soils and enhance P loss from land to water.

Summary

Climate change is likely to increase P losses due primarily to increases in extreme precipitation and saltwater intrusion in coastal areas. These impacts will be geographically variable. Current P loss models could be improved by including climate change effects on P sources and transport, the inclusion of legacy P soil data, and accounting for P losses from legacy P soils.

Graphical Abstract

Climate change effects on phosphorus loss