俄罗斯-乌克兰战争与 G7 债务市场:冲突期间公众对经济制裁的情绪证据

IF 2.8 3区 经济学 Q2 BUSINESS, FINANCE International Journal of Finance & Economics Pub Date : 2023-09-19 DOI:10.1002/ijfe.2887
Zunaidah Sulong, Mohammad Abdullah, Emmanuel Joel Aikins Abakah, David Adeabah, Simplice Asongu
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引用次数: 0

摘要

与战争相关的预期会改变投资者的风险和收益偏好。在本研究中,我们考察了俄乌战争期间战争和制裁情绪对 G7 国家债务市场的影响。我们使用社交媒体、新闻媒体和互联网关注度等行为指标来反映 2022 年 1 月 1 日至 2023 年 4 月 20 日期间的公众情绪。我们采用了量化回归(QQR)和滚动窗口小波相关(RWWC)方法。量化对量化回归结果显示了对固定收益证券的不同影响。具体而言,极端公众情绪对 G7 固定收益证券回报率有负面影响。小波相关结果显示了公众情绪与固定收益证券之间的动态相关模式。公众情绪与 G7 固定收益证券之间存在负相关关系。这种相关性是时变的,并且高度依赖于事件。我们使用公司债券数据进行的额外分析表明了我们研究结果的稳健性。此外,传染分析表明,公众情绪对 G7 固定收益证券的溢出效应有显著影响。我们的研究结果对于制定资产配置、投资组合表现和风险对冲策略具有重要意义。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。

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Russia-Ukraine war and G7 debt markets: Evidence from public sentiment towards economic sanctions during the conflict

War-related expectations cause changes to investors' risks and returns preferences. In this study, we examine the implications of war and sanctions sentiment for the G7 countries' debt markets during the Russia-Ukraine war. We use behavioural indicators across social media, news media, and internet attention to reflect the public sentiment from 1st January 2022 to 20th April 2023. We apply the quantile-on-quantile regression (QQR) and rolling window wavelet correlation (RWWC) methods. The quantile-on-quantile regression results show heterogenous impact on fixed income securities. Specifically, extreme public sentiment has a negative impact on G7 fixed income securities return. The wavelets correlation result shows dynamic correlation pattern among public sentiment and fixed income securities. There is a negative relationship between public sentiment and G7 fixed income securities. The correlation is time-varying and highly event dependent. Our additional analysis using corporate bond data indicates the robustness of our findings. Furthermore, the contagion analysis shows public sentiment significantly influence G7 fixed income securities spillover. Our findings can be of great significance while framing strategies for asset allocation, portfolio performance and risk hedging.

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CiteScore
5.70
自引率
6.90%
发文量
143
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