理解碳中和的本质和基本原理

Jiahua PAN, Tianhong SUN
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引用次数: 0

摘要

要实现碳中和,就必须把握碳中和的本质。本文探讨了碳中和的几个基本问题,并从环境可持续性、技术创新、经济可行性、能源安全和国际合作等方面进行了深入分析。研究表明,碳中和的努力需要集中在化石燃料燃烧产生的关键二氧化碳(CO 2)排放上。化石能源被认为是短期的“压舱石”,但它的属性决定了它很难带来可持续的未来,它的逐步淘汰是不可避免的。颠覆性的零碳能源生产及其消费中的革命性技术创新正在加速这一逐步淘汰进程;以零碳为导向的碳中和目标抵御市场逆风的能力增强,为高质量发展释放动力。碳捕获和碳汇是不可或缺的,但它们无法提供一条令人满意的碳中和之路。碳中和需要大量的资本投入,这可以通过市场竞争力不断增强的零碳产品来提供。投资高碳化石燃料行业是有风险的。高碳锁定不仅增加了碳中和的难度,也加剧了能源安全的风险,难以避免市场挤出的风险,造成巨额的资金浪费。因此,“去碳化”是大势所趋,是在国际上伸张正义的优势,是在国际上发出更大声音的优势,也是增强市场竞争力的重点。然而,中国碳中和的目标年份是在2060年之前,这表明碳中和不是一个短期目标。因此,一夜之间实现它是不可能的,也没有必要。应充分利用碳中和的机会,促进经济的高质量增长和人民福祉的提高。碳中和是一个长期的过程,需要周密的计划和逐步的行动。碳中和在能源革命的同时,也带来了生产关系和发展模式的革命性转变。
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Understanding the Nature and Rationale of Carbon Neutrality
To achieve carbon neutrality, it is necessary to grasp the essence of carbon neutrality. This paper looks into a few fundamental issues of carbon neutrality, and provides an in-depth analysis from the perspectives of environmental sustainability, technological innovation, economic viability, energy security, and international cooperation. It is shown that efforts for carbon neutrality need to focus on the key carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) emissions from fossil fuel combustion. Fossil energy is considered to play a role as a short-term “ballast stone”, but its attributes decide that it can hardly lead to a sustainable future, and its phasing-out is inevitable. Disruptive zero-carbon energy production and revolutionary technological innovation in its consumption are accelerating that phasing-out process; the zero-carbon-oriented carbon neutrality goal is growing more resilient to market headwinds and releasing momentum for high-quality development. Carbon capture and carbon sinks are indispensable, but they are unable to provide a satisfactory path to carbon neutrality. Carbon neutrality requires substantial capital investment, which can be provided by zero-carbon products with ever-increasing market competitiveness. Investment in high carbon fossil fuel industry can be risky. High carbon lock-in not only increases the difficulty of carbon neutrality, but also intensifies the risk of energy security, and it is difficult to avoid the risk of market crowding-out, resulting in huge amounts of capital waste. Consequently, decarbonization is the trend of the times, giving an edge on seeking international justice and a louder voice in the international community, and also the focus of market competitiveness. However, the target year for carbon neutrality in China is before 2060, indicating that carbon neutrality is not a short-term goal. Therefore, it is impossible and unnecessary to have it realized overnight. The opportunity of carbon neutrality should be well taken for quality growth of the economy and enhancement of people’s well-being. Carbon neutrality is a long-term process which calls for thorough plans and step-by-step actions. It is also evident that along with energy revolution, carbon neutrality also brings revolutionary transformation of relations of production and development paradigm.
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CiteScore
1.90
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发文量
24
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