坦桑尼亚青年金融包容性的决定因素及其创业意愿

Khatibu Kazungu, Frank E. Njau
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摘要

摘要:在过去十年左右的时间里,坦桑尼亚的经济在金融包容性方面取得了显著的增长。金融排斥水平分别在2009年至2017年期间从55%持续下降至28%。此外,2009年至2017年期间,使用正规金融服务的成年人比例几乎翻了两番。然而,现有的统计数据也表明,青年人口参与正规银行、保险、信贷和储蓄产品和服务的比例仍然极低。此外,只有不到50%的年轻人从正规金融机构借款。事实上,缺乏获得资金的机会经常被认为是青年从事创业活动的主要障碍。尽管在解决普惠金融问题方面已经做了很多工作,但对坦桑尼亚青年普惠金融的决定因素以及普惠金融对青年创业意愿的影响知之甚少。本研究使用世界银行金融包容性指数(2018年)来研究金融包容性的决定因素以及金融包容性对坦桑尼亚青年参与创业活动意愿的影响。在此过程中,我们采用倾向得分匹配(PSM)和治疗效果模型。普惠金融通过三个指标来衡量,即;“正式账户”、“正式储蓄”和“正式信贷”。logit PSM回归的结果表明,就业增加了年轻人在正规金融机构拥有活期账户或储蓄账户的可能性。就正规账户和正规储蓄而言,相对于接受过初等教育的人,获得中等教育水平的人拥有正规账户和正规储蓄账户的可能性会增加。基于倾向得分和核匹配算法计算的平均处理效应估计结果表明,拥有正规的经常账户、正规的储蓄账户和获得正规的信贷服务对青年创业意愿有积极影响。其政策含义是,加强向青年提供信贷的政府政策仍然是最重要的,是吸引青年参与创业活动的灵丹妙药。
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Determinants of Youth Financial Inclusion and Their Willingness to Become Entrepreneurs in Tanzania
ABSTRACT: Over the last decade or so, Tanzania's economy has registered a significant growth in the rate of financial inclusion. The level of financial exclusion has consistently declined from 55% to 28% between 2009 and 2017 respectively. Moreover, the percentage of the adult population using formal financial services has almost quadrupled between 2009 and 2017. However, available statistics also illustrate that the participation of youth population in the formal banking, insurance, credit and savings products and services remain abysmally low. Furthermore, less than 50 percent of youth borrow from formal financial institutions. Indeed, lack of access to finance is frequently singled out as the major obstacle among youth to engage in entrepreneurial activities. Although much has been done to address financial inclusion, relatively little is known about the determinants of youth financial inclusion as well as the impact of financial inclusion on youth's willingness to engage in entrepreneurship in Tanzania. This study uses World Bank Financial Inclusion Index, (2018) to examine both the determinants of financial inclusion and the effects of financial inclusion on youth willingness to engage in entrepreneurial activities in Tanzania. In doing so, we employ propensity scores matching (PSM) and the treatment effects models. Financial inclusion is measured by using three indicators namely; "formal account", "formal savings" and "formal credit". The results from the logit PSM regression indicate that being employed increases the likelihood of having a current account or a savings account in a formal financial institution amongst the young people. In the case of formal account and formal saving, attaining a secondary education level increases the probability of having a formal account and a formal saving account relative to those with primary education. The estimated results from the Average Treatment Effect, whose computation is built on the propensity scores and the kernel matching algorithm show that having a formal current account, formal saving account and access to formal credit services positively affect the willingness of youths to engage into entrepreneurship. The policy implication is that government policy that enhances expansion of credit to youth remains paramount as a panacea to engage youth in entrepreneurial activities.
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