Export Spillovers from Foreign Direct Investment in Kenya's Manufacturing Sector: A Double Hurdle Approach

ABSTRACT: This paper investigates export spillovers from foreign direct investment on the exporting activities of domestic manufacturing firms in Kenya. Specifically, the paper aims at identifying the transmission channels through which foreign direct investment affects the export propensity and export intensity decisions of domestically-owned firms. The study also examines the importance of firm-level heterogeneity on the occurrence and behavior of spillover channels. The study uses a panel data set for manufacturing firms in Kenya, obtained from the World Bank Enterprise Surveys, conducted in three waves covering the period 2007–2018. Employing the Double-Hurdle model approach, and using the maximum likelihood estimation technique, we empirically demonstrate the relevance and significance of distinguishing three channels for intra-industry (horizontal) spillovers – demonstration effects, information effects and competition effects channels and one channel for vertical spillovers, that is, backward linkage channel. Findings of this study shows that domestically-owned firms in Kenya experience significant positive export spillovers on their export participation decisions through the demonstration effects channel and significant negative spillovers via the competition effects channel. The findings also show significant positive export spillover effects on the export intensity decisions of domestically-owned firms via information and competition effects channels and significant negative export spillover effects via the backward linkages channel. The results further provide evidence that firms belonging to industries with low technological levels were unable to absorb spillover benefits from foreign presence via the demonstration effects channel. The results also indicate that small and medium firms were unable to reap export spillovers benefits via information effects and backward linkage channels. The findings have important policy implications for managers of firms and policymakers in Kenya and other developing countries. To enhance export-related spillover benefits, domestic firms need to enhance their absorptive capacities by upgrading their technical capacities and improving quality standards. Governments should facilitate the exchange of information on investor needs, their capacities and skills requirements, thus bridging information gaps between domestic suppliers and foreign investors in addition to supporting domestic market linkages.