{"title":"商业周期是随机冲击的结果吗?","authors":"Yi Zhu","doi":"10.1017/s136510052300041x","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"Abstract According to the real business cycle theory, business cycles mainly result from random exogenous shocks. In this paper, this argument is tested. I extend the Wald–Wolfowitz runs test under the assumption that a recession lasts for two periods at least and an expansion lasts for $k$ periods at least with k ≥ 2. I apply the extended runs test to the three two-valued data recession-expansion series generated by the National Bureau of Economic Research and the Center for Economic and Policy Research. The test results reject the null hypothesis that they are generated in a random way for any $k$ even at the 1% significance level.","PeriodicalId":18078,"journal":{"name":"Macroeconomic Dynamics","volume":"37 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.7000,"publicationDate":"2023-09-29","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"0","resultStr":"{\"title\":\"Do business cycles result from stochastic shocks?\",\"authors\":\"Yi Zhu\",\"doi\":\"10.1017/s136510052300041x\",\"DOIUrl\":null,\"url\":null,\"abstract\":\"Abstract According to the real business cycle theory, business cycles mainly result from random exogenous shocks. In this paper, this argument is tested. I extend the Wald–Wolfowitz runs test under the assumption that a recession lasts for two periods at least and an expansion lasts for $k$ periods at least with k ≥ 2. I apply the extended runs test to the three two-valued data recession-expansion series generated by the National Bureau of Economic Research and the Center for Economic and Policy Research. The test results reject the null hypothesis that they are generated in a random way for any $k$ even at the 1% significance level.\",\"PeriodicalId\":18078,\"journal\":{\"name\":\"Macroeconomic Dynamics\",\"volume\":\"37 1\",\"pages\":\"0\"},\"PeriodicalIF\":0.7000,\"publicationDate\":\"2023-09-29\",\"publicationTypes\":\"Journal Article\",\"fieldsOfStudy\":null,\"isOpenAccess\":false,\"openAccessPdf\":\"\",\"citationCount\":\"0\",\"resultStr\":null,\"platform\":\"Semanticscholar\",\"paperid\":null,\"PeriodicalName\":\"Macroeconomic Dynamics\",\"FirstCategoryId\":\"1085\",\"ListUrlMain\":\"https://doi.org/10.1017/s136510052300041x\",\"RegionNum\":4,\"RegionCategory\":\"经济学\",\"ArticlePicture\":[],\"TitleCN\":null,\"AbstractTextCN\":null,\"PMCID\":null,\"EPubDate\":\"\",\"PubModel\":\"\",\"JCR\":\"Q3\",\"JCRName\":\"ECONOMICS\",\"Score\":null,\"Total\":0}","platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Macroeconomic Dynamics","FirstCategoryId":"1085","ListUrlMain":"https://doi.org/10.1017/s136510052300041x","RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q3","JCRName":"ECONOMICS","Score":null,"Total":0}
Abstract According to the real business cycle theory, business cycles mainly result from random exogenous shocks. In this paper, this argument is tested. I extend the Wald–Wolfowitz runs test under the assumption that a recession lasts for two periods at least and an expansion lasts for $k$ periods at least with k ≥ 2. I apply the extended runs test to the three two-valued data recession-expansion series generated by the National Bureau of Economic Research and the Center for Economic and Policy Research. The test results reject the null hypothesis that they are generated in a random way for any $k$ even at the 1% significance level.
期刊介绍:
Macroeconomic Dynamics publishes theoretical, empirical or quantitative research of the highest standard. Papers are welcomed from all areas of macroeconomics and from all parts of the world. Major advances in macroeconomics without immediate policy applications will also be accepted, if they show potential for application in the future. Occasional book reviews, announcements, conference proceedings, special issues, interviews, dialogues, and surveys are also published.