选民如何解读社会阶层诉求?开放式回答的经验教训

IF 4.5 1区 社会学 Q1 POLITICAL SCIENCE West European Politics Pub Date : 2023-11-09 DOI:10.1080/01402382.2023.2274726
Rune Stubager, Mads Thau
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Finally, while voters recognise traditional class-party alliances, such stereotypes do not undercut the effectiveness of the appeals; thus, also candidates from right-wing parties can use working class appeals to their benefit. These findings advance our understanding of the role of social groups in party electoral strategies.Keywords: Group appealsclass votingexperimentopen-ended responsescontent analysis AcknowledgementsThe authors gratefully acknowledge the help of Joshua Robison in collecting the data and Lasse Endby Pedersen who coded the open-ended responses. Previous versions of the article were presented at the ECPR General Conference in Innsbruck, 2022, the annual meeting of the Danish Political Science Association, 2022 as well as at the Department of Political Science, Aarhus University. The authors are thankful for all the helpful comments received on these occasions.Ethical approvalThe data for the analysis was collected in accordance with Danish law regarding participant consent and ethical approval and is available at https://osf.io/zh43j/?view_only=9fae5d6ce51749039a47adca497806e9.Disclosure statementNo potential conflict of interest was reported by the author(s).Notes1 We define considerations as any type of thought that appears in a voter’s mind when exposed to a certain stimulus – a group appeal in this case – and assume that these can be, at least partly, measured via an open-ended question (see below).2 Robison et al. (Citation2021) find that this result applies for all classes except upper middle class identifiers who tend not to react to the appeals. We return to this point below.3 On a 0 to 10 sympathy scale like the one introduced below, all four groups mentioned in the treatments scored between 7.1 and 7.4 – essentially the same, in other words.4 Note that in Denmark high school teachers are university graduates with a master’s degree, thus representing an upper middle class occupation.5 Respondents were debriefed at the end of the survey.6 In the Danish electoral system, voters have the option of voting for specific candidates, as well as for parties, implying that evaluations of single candidates based on their statements is an externally valid exercise.7 70 respondents gave responses regarding the second vignette revealing that they had noticed the pattern of the vignettes already after seeing the first two. Twenty-two of these did, however, provide a substantial response also regarding the second vignette. The remaining 48 were removed from the analysis. We have rerun all analyses separately for the first and second rounds of vignettes presented to respondents. Overall, these separate analyses reproduce the results presented although some effects fail to reach significance at the .05-level due to the reduced sample sizes. Therefore, we retain both rounds in the main analysis to increase analytical power.8 As described in the online appendix, we base this subdivision on v3 in the coding scheme that registers whether or not the overall valence of the response was positive or negative.9 Our confidence in the results is further strengthened by supplementary analyses in which we control for the length (in characters) of the open-ended responses provided. The variable is insignificant in all models and the results are indistinguishable from those presented. This means that the variables capturing the content of the responses are not merely picking up the overall elaborateness of respondents’ thinking.10 To facilitate comparability with the analyses below, only respondents who responded to the open-ended question about their considerations are included in the analysis. If all respondents are included, the results are similar, although the differences between the treatment categories are slightly smaller, see Figure A3 in the Online Appendix.11 As shown in the online appendix, we also replicate the finding that the effect of class appeals are weaker among upper middle class than working class identifiers.12 Because the effects are similar across the two categories for mentions of, respectively, the groups benefitted or disadvantaged in the appeals (see Table 1) we have combined the two categories in the analysis depicted in Figure 2. Due to the small number of respondents mentioning themselves in relation to the appeals (see Table 2) we did not include this category in the figure.13 We note that the lower sympathy scores among those for whom the otherwise popular working class appeal elicits negative emotions suggest a larger role for emotions as moderators of group appeals than implied by our theoretical discussion. This is a point for future work to explore.14 Recall, the mean evaluation of a Liberal candidate appealing to the upper middle class was around four scale points (see Figure 1), while the evaluation of a Liberal candidate appealing to the working class is around seven scale points among voters noticing the counter-stereotypical nature of the appeal (see Figure 5).Additional informationFundingThis work was supported by the Independent Research Fund Denmark under Grant no 1327-00113 to Rune Stubager.Notes on contributorsRune StubagerRune Stubager is a Professor of Political Science at Aarhus University. His research focuses on political and electoral behaviour in particular on the role of social groups as an influence on attitudes and party choice. He is one of the co-PIs of the Danish National Election Study. His work has appeared in journals like the British Journal of Political Science, Comparative Political Studies, the European Journal of Political Research, and the British Journal of Sociology. He is a co-author of the recently published book The Danish Voter: Democratic Ideals and Challenges (with Kasper Møller Hansen, Michael S. Lewis-Beck, and Richard Nadeau, University of Michigan Press, 2021). [stubager@ps.au.dk]Mads ThauMads Thau is a Senior Research Fellow at the Institute for Social Research, Oslo. He is broadly interested in democratic politics, including voting and opinion formation, party strategies, mass-elite interactions, and representation. His research has paid particular attention to parties’ use of group appeals and their electoral consequences. In addition to numerous policy reports, Thau has published journal articles in Comparative Political Studies, Public Administration, European Union Politics, Political Studies, and the Journal of Politics. [mads.thau@samfunnsforskning.no]","PeriodicalId":48213,"journal":{"name":"West European Politics","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":4.5000,"publicationDate":"2023-11-09","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"0","resultStr":"{\"title\":\"How do voters interpret social class appeals? Lessons from open-ended responses\",\"authors\":\"Rune Stubager, Mads Thau\",\"doi\":\"10.1080/01402382.2023.2274726\",\"DOIUrl\":null,\"url\":null,\"abstract\":\"AbstractRecent research has shown that parties’ group appeals, particularly working class appeals, can raise electoral support. But how do such effects come about? This article explores the mechanisms underlying group appeals by content analysing voters’ open-ended responses to working class and upper middle class appeals in a survey experiment in Denmark. The results show that voters generally connect class-based rhetoric from candidates to issues of inequality with some also reacting emotionally. Furthermore, the effect of class appeals on electoral support is conditioned by the considerations activated by the appeals, with stronger effects observed among voters who focus on the groups involved. Finally, while voters recognise traditional class-party alliances, such stereotypes do not undercut the effectiveness of the appeals; thus, also candidates from right-wing parties can use working class appeals to their benefit. These findings advance our understanding of the role of social groups in party electoral strategies.Keywords: Group appealsclass votingexperimentopen-ended responsescontent analysis AcknowledgementsThe authors gratefully acknowledge the help of Joshua Robison in collecting the data and Lasse Endby Pedersen who coded the open-ended responses. Previous versions of the article were presented at the ECPR General Conference in Innsbruck, 2022, the annual meeting of the Danish Political Science Association, 2022 as well as at the Department of Political Science, Aarhus University. The authors are thankful for all the helpful comments received on these occasions.Ethical approvalThe data for the analysis was collected in accordance with Danish law regarding participant consent and ethical approval and is available at https://osf.io/zh43j/?view_only=9fae5d6ce51749039a47adca497806e9.Disclosure statementNo potential conflict of interest was reported by the author(s).Notes1 We define considerations as any type of thought that appears in a voter’s mind when exposed to a certain stimulus – a group appeal in this case – and assume that these can be, at least partly, measured via an open-ended question (see below).2 Robison et al. (Citation2021) find that this result applies for all classes except upper middle class identifiers who tend not to react to the appeals. We return to this point below.3 On a 0 to 10 sympathy scale like the one introduced below, all four groups mentioned in the treatments scored between 7.1 and 7.4 – essentially the same, in other words.4 Note that in Denmark high school teachers are university graduates with a master’s degree, thus representing an upper middle class occupation.5 Respondents were debriefed at the end of the survey.6 In the Danish electoral system, voters have the option of voting for specific candidates, as well as for parties, implying that evaluations of single candidates based on their statements is an externally valid exercise.7 70 respondents gave responses regarding the second vignette revealing that they had noticed the pattern of the vignettes already after seeing the first two. Twenty-two of these did, however, provide a substantial response also regarding the second vignette. The remaining 48 were removed from the analysis. We have rerun all analyses separately for the first and second rounds of vignettes presented to respondents. Overall, these separate analyses reproduce the results presented although some effects fail to reach significance at the .05-level due to the reduced sample sizes. Therefore, we retain both rounds in the main analysis to increase analytical power.8 As described in the online appendix, we base this subdivision on v3 in the coding scheme that registers whether or not the overall valence of the response was positive or negative.9 Our confidence in the results is further strengthened by supplementary analyses in which we control for the length (in characters) of the open-ended responses provided. The variable is insignificant in all models and the results are indistinguishable from those presented. This means that the variables capturing the content of the responses are not merely picking up the overall elaborateness of respondents’ thinking.10 To facilitate comparability with the analyses below, only respondents who responded to the open-ended question about their considerations are included in the analysis. If all respondents are included, the results are similar, although the differences between the treatment categories are slightly smaller, see Figure A3 in the Online Appendix.11 As shown in the online appendix, we also replicate the finding that the effect of class appeals are weaker among upper middle class than working class identifiers.12 Because the effects are similar across the two categories for mentions of, respectively, the groups benefitted or disadvantaged in the appeals (see Table 1) we have combined the two categories in the analysis depicted in Figure 2. Due to the small number of respondents mentioning themselves in relation to the appeals (see Table 2) we did not include this category in the figure.13 We note that the lower sympathy scores among those for whom the otherwise popular working class appeal elicits negative emotions suggest a larger role for emotions as moderators of group appeals than implied by our theoretical discussion. This is a point for future work to explore.14 Recall, the mean evaluation of a Liberal candidate appealing to the upper middle class was around four scale points (see Figure 1), while the evaluation of a Liberal candidate appealing to the working class is around seven scale points among voters noticing the counter-stereotypical nature of the appeal (see Figure 5).Additional informationFundingThis work was supported by the Independent Research Fund Denmark under Grant no 1327-00113 to Rune Stubager.Notes on contributorsRune StubagerRune Stubager is a Professor of Political Science at Aarhus University. His research focuses on political and electoral behaviour in particular on the role of social groups as an influence on attitudes and party choice. He is one of the co-PIs of the Danish National Election Study. His work has appeared in journals like the British Journal of Political Science, Comparative Political Studies, the European Journal of Political Research, and the British Journal of Sociology. He is a co-author of the recently published book The Danish Voter: Democratic Ideals and Challenges (with Kasper Møller Hansen, Michael S. Lewis-Beck, and Richard Nadeau, University of Michigan Press, 2021). [stubager@ps.au.dk]Mads ThauMads Thau is a Senior Research Fellow at the Institute for Social Research, Oslo. He is broadly interested in democratic politics, including voting and opinion formation, party strategies, mass-elite interactions, and representation. His research has paid particular attention to parties’ use of group appeals and their electoral consequences. In addition to numerous policy reports, Thau has published journal articles in Comparative Political Studies, Public Administration, European Union Politics, Political Studies, and the Journal of Politics. 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引用次数: 0

摘要

摘要近年来的研究表明,政党的群体诉求,特别是工人阶级诉求,能够提高选民的支持度。但是这些影响是如何产生的呢?本文在丹麦的一项调查实验中,通过内容分析选民对工人阶级和中上层阶级诉求的开放式回应,探讨了群体诉求的潜在机制。结果显示,选民通常将候选人基于阶级的言论与不平等问题联系起来,有些人也会做出情绪化的反应。此外,阶级诉求对选举支持的影响取决于诉求所激发的考虑,在关注相关群体的选民中观察到更强的影响。最后,尽管选民认可传统的阶级政党联盟,但这种刻板印象并不会削弱这些诉求的有效性;因此,右翼政党的候选人也可以利用工人阶级的吸引力来为自己谋利。这些发现促进了我们对社会群体在政党选举策略中的作用的理解。关键词:群体诉求班级投票实验开放式回答内容分析致谢作者感谢Joshua Robison的数据收集和Lasse Endby Pedersen的开放式回答编码。这篇文章之前的版本曾在2022年因斯布鲁克举行的ECPR大会、2022年丹麦政治科学协会年会以及奥胡斯大学政治科学系上发表。作者对在这些场合收到的所有有益的评论表示感谢。伦理批准本分析的数据是根据丹麦关于参与者同意和伦理批准的法律收集的,可在https://osf.io/zh43j/?view_only=9fae5d6ce51749039a47adca497806e9.Disclosure声明中获得。作者未报告潜在的利益冲突。注1:我们将“考虑”定义为选民在受到某种刺激时(在这种情况下是一种群体吸引力)脑海中出现的任何类型的想法,并假设这些想法至少可以部分地通过开放式问题来衡量(见下文)Robison等人(Citation2021)发现,这一结果适用于所有阶层,除了中上层阶级的标识符,他们往往不会对呼吁做出反应。下面我们再回到这一点上来在一个0到10的同情量表上,像下面介绍的那样,治疗中提到的四组人的得分都在7.1到7.4之间——换句话说,基本上是一样的请注意,在丹麦,高中教师都是拥有硕士学位的大学毕业生,因此代表了中上层阶级的职业在调查结束时,向应答者作了简要汇报在丹麦的选举制度中,选民可以选择投票给特定的候选人,也可以投票给政党,这意味着根据单个候选人的陈述对其进行评价是一种外部有效的做法。770名受访者对第二个小插曲做出了回应,表明他们在看了前两个小插曲之后已经注意到了小插曲的模式。但是,其中22个国家也对第二个小插曲提供了实质性的答复。剩下的48个从分析中删除。我们已经重新运行了所有的分析分别为第一轮和第二轮的小插曲呈现给受访者。总体而言,这些单独的分析再现了所呈现的结果,尽管由于样本量减少,一些效果在0.05水平上未能达到显著性。因此,我们在主分析中保留了两轮,以增加分析能力如在线附录中所述,我们基于编码方案中的v3进行细分,该方案记录了响应的总体价是正还是负我们对结果的信心进一步加强了补充分析,其中我们控制了所提供的开放式回答的长度(以字符为单位)。该变量在所有模型中都不显著,结果与所呈现的结果无法区分。这就意味着,捕捉回答内容的变量不仅仅是拾取被调查者思考的整体精细程度为了便于与以下分析的可比性,只有回答了关于其考虑的开放式问题的受访者才包括在分析中。如果包括所有受访者,结果是相似的,尽管治疗类别之间的差异略小,见在线附录中的图A3 .11。正如在线附录所示,我们也重复了阶级诉求在中上层阶级中的影响弱于工人阶级标识者的发现由于在申诉中受益或不利的群体(见表1)中分别提到的两个类别的影响是相似的,因此我们在图2中描述的分析中将这两个类别结合起来。 由于少数答复者提到自己与上诉有关(见表2),我们没有将这一类列入图13我们注意到,那些受欢迎的工人阶级诉求引起负面情绪的人的同情分数较低,这表明情绪作为群体诉求的调节者的作用比我们的理论讨论所暗示的要大。这是今后工作要探讨的问题回想一下,自由党候选人对中上层阶级的吸引力的平均评价约为4个量表点(见图1),而自由党候选人对工人阶级的吸引力的评价在选民中约为7个量表点,注意到呼吁的反刻板印象性质(见图5)。额外信息资助本工作由丹麦独立研究基金资助,资助编号1327-00113给Rune Stubager。作者简介rune Stubager是奥尔胡斯大学的政治学教授。他的研究重点是政治和选举行为,特别是社会群体对态度和政党选择的影响。他是丹麦全国选举研究的共同pi之一。他的作品发表在《英国政治学杂志》、《比较政治研究》、《欧洲政治研究杂志》和《英国社会学杂志》等期刊上。他是最近出版的《丹麦选民:民主理想与挑战》一书的合著者(与Kasper Møller Hansen、Michael S. Lewis-Beck和Richard Nadeau合著,密歇根大学出版社,2021年)。[stubager@ps.au.dk]Mads ThauMads Thau,奥斯陆社会研究所高级研究员。他对民主政治有广泛的兴趣,包括投票和意见形成、政党战略、大众精英互动和代表制。他的研究特别关注政党对群体诉求的使用及其选举后果。除了大量的政策报告外,Thau还在《比较政治研究》、《公共管理》、《欧盟政治》、《政治研究》和《政治杂志》上发表过文章。(mads.thau@samfunnsforskning.no)
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How do voters interpret social class appeals? Lessons from open-ended responses
AbstractRecent research has shown that parties’ group appeals, particularly working class appeals, can raise electoral support. But how do such effects come about? This article explores the mechanisms underlying group appeals by content analysing voters’ open-ended responses to working class and upper middle class appeals in a survey experiment in Denmark. The results show that voters generally connect class-based rhetoric from candidates to issues of inequality with some also reacting emotionally. Furthermore, the effect of class appeals on electoral support is conditioned by the considerations activated by the appeals, with stronger effects observed among voters who focus on the groups involved. Finally, while voters recognise traditional class-party alliances, such stereotypes do not undercut the effectiveness of the appeals; thus, also candidates from right-wing parties can use working class appeals to their benefit. These findings advance our understanding of the role of social groups in party electoral strategies.Keywords: Group appealsclass votingexperimentopen-ended responsescontent analysis AcknowledgementsThe authors gratefully acknowledge the help of Joshua Robison in collecting the data and Lasse Endby Pedersen who coded the open-ended responses. Previous versions of the article were presented at the ECPR General Conference in Innsbruck, 2022, the annual meeting of the Danish Political Science Association, 2022 as well as at the Department of Political Science, Aarhus University. The authors are thankful for all the helpful comments received on these occasions.Ethical approvalThe data for the analysis was collected in accordance with Danish law regarding participant consent and ethical approval and is available at https://osf.io/zh43j/?view_only=9fae5d6ce51749039a47adca497806e9.Disclosure statementNo potential conflict of interest was reported by the author(s).Notes1 We define considerations as any type of thought that appears in a voter’s mind when exposed to a certain stimulus – a group appeal in this case – and assume that these can be, at least partly, measured via an open-ended question (see below).2 Robison et al. (Citation2021) find that this result applies for all classes except upper middle class identifiers who tend not to react to the appeals. We return to this point below.3 On a 0 to 10 sympathy scale like the one introduced below, all four groups mentioned in the treatments scored between 7.1 and 7.4 – essentially the same, in other words.4 Note that in Denmark high school teachers are university graduates with a master’s degree, thus representing an upper middle class occupation.5 Respondents were debriefed at the end of the survey.6 In the Danish electoral system, voters have the option of voting for specific candidates, as well as for parties, implying that evaluations of single candidates based on their statements is an externally valid exercise.7 70 respondents gave responses regarding the second vignette revealing that they had noticed the pattern of the vignettes already after seeing the first two. Twenty-two of these did, however, provide a substantial response also regarding the second vignette. The remaining 48 were removed from the analysis. We have rerun all analyses separately for the first and second rounds of vignettes presented to respondents. Overall, these separate analyses reproduce the results presented although some effects fail to reach significance at the .05-level due to the reduced sample sizes. Therefore, we retain both rounds in the main analysis to increase analytical power.8 As described in the online appendix, we base this subdivision on v3 in the coding scheme that registers whether or not the overall valence of the response was positive or negative.9 Our confidence in the results is further strengthened by supplementary analyses in which we control for the length (in characters) of the open-ended responses provided. The variable is insignificant in all models and the results are indistinguishable from those presented. This means that the variables capturing the content of the responses are not merely picking up the overall elaborateness of respondents’ thinking.10 To facilitate comparability with the analyses below, only respondents who responded to the open-ended question about their considerations are included in the analysis. If all respondents are included, the results are similar, although the differences between the treatment categories are slightly smaller, see Figure A3 in the Online Appendix.11 As shown in the online appendix, we also replicate the finding that the effect of class appeals are weaker among upper middle class than working class identifiers.12 Because the effects are similar across the two categories for mentions of, respectively, the groups benefitted or disadvantaged in the appeals (see Table 1) we have combined the two categories in the analysis depicted in Figure 2. Due to the small number of respondents mentioning themselves in relation to the appeals (see Table 2) we did not include this category in the figure.13 We note that the lower sympathy scores among those for whom the otherwise popular working class appeal elicits negative emotions suggest a larger role for emotions as moderators of group appeals than implied by our theoretical discussion. This is a point for future work to explore.14 Recall, the mean evaluation of a Liberal candidate appealing to the upper middle class was around four scale points (see Figure 1), while the evaluation of a Liberal candidate appealing to the working class is around seven scale points among voters noticing the counter-stereotypical nature of the appeal (see Figure 5).Additional informationFundingThis work was supported by the Independent Research Fund Denmark under Grant no 1327-00113 to Rune Stubager.Notes on contributorsRune StubagerRune Stubager is a Professor of Political Science at Aarhus University. His research focuses on political and electoral behaviour in particular on the role of social groups as an influence on attitudes and party choice. He is one of the co-PIs of the Danish National Election Study. His work has appeared in journals like the British Journal of Political Science, Comparative Political Studies, the European Journal of Political Research, and the British Journal of Sociology. He is a co-author of the recently published book The Danish Voter: Democratic Ideals and Challenges (with Kasper Møller Hansen, Michael S. Lewis-Beck, and Richard Nadeau, University of Michigan Press, 2021). [stubager@ps.au.dk]Mads ThauMads Thau is a Senior Research Fellow at the Institute for Social Research, Oslo. He is broadly interested in democratic politics, including voting and opinion formation, party strategies, mass-elite interactions, and representation. His research has paid particular attention to parties’ use of group appeals and their electoral consequences. In addition to numerous policy reports, Thau has published journal articles in Comparative Political Studies, Public Administration, European Union Politics, Political Studies, and the Journal of Politics. [mads.thau@samfunnsforskning.no]
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West European Politics
West European Politics POLITICAL SCIENCE-
CiteScore
10.00
自引率
7.10%
发文量
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期刊介绍: West European Politics (WEP)has established itself as one of the most authoritative journals covering political and social issues in Western Europe. It has a substantial reviews section and coverage of all national elections in Western Europe. Its comprehensive scope, embracing all the major political and social developments in all West European countries, including the European Union, makes it essential reading for both political practitioners and academics.
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