SimplETAS:适用于操作目的和地震危害分析的基准地震预报模型

IF 2.6 3区 地球科学 Q2 GEOCHEMISTRY & GEOPHYSICS Seismological Research Letters Pub Date : 2023-09-29 DOI:10.1785/0220230199
Simone Mancini, Warner Marzocchi
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引用次数: 1

摘要

流行型余震序列(ETAS)模型是对短时时空地震聚类最有效的数学描述。然而,这种模型的使用有时会受到难以估计大量未知相关参数的阻碍。此外,最新的ETAS公式引入了一些参数的时空可变性,这使得它们的估计更加困难。在这里,我们从相反的角度研究模型,寻找能够令人满意地描述地壳构造区域地震聚集的最简单的ETAS参数化;我们将这个模型命名为simplETAS。我们表明,用意大利过去几十年的地震活动校准的simplETAS充分描述了仪器和历史目录中样本外最大地震的时空发生,证实了建立模型所做假设的有效性。由于其简单性,simplETAS很容易适用于大多数地区,并且它具有一些值得注意的重要性质。首先,simplETAS可以作为基准模型来评估更复杂地震预报的相对预测能力。其次,在地震目录有限的地区,它可以用于地震预报的业务目的。第三,它提供了一种简单、灵活和有效的方法来生成可用于地震灾害和风险分析的变长合成地震目录,克服了所有与聚类相关的问题和有争议的泊松假设。
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SimplETAS: A Benchmark Earthquake Forecasting Model Suitable for Operational Purposes and Seismic Hazard Analysis
Abstract The epidemic-type aftershock sequence (ETAS) model is the most effective mathematical description of the short-term space–time earthquake clustering. However, the use of such a model is sometimes hampered by the difficulty in estimating the high number of its unknown correlated parameters. Moreover, the most recent ETAS formulations introduce the space–time variability of some parameters that makes their estimation even more arduous. Here, we investigate the model in an opposite perspective, looking for the simplest ETAS parameterization that can satisfactorily describes the earthquake clustering in crustal tectonic regions; we named this model simplETAS. We show that simplETAS calibrated with the Italian seismicity of the last decades adequately describes the space–time occurrence of the out-of-sample largest earthquakes in the instrumental and historical catalog, confirming the validity of the assumptions made to build the model. Owing to its simplicity, simplETAS is easily applicable in most regions, and it has some important properties that are worth being remarked. First, simplETAS can be used as a benchmark model to assess the relative predictive skill of more complex earthquake forecasts. Second, it may be used for operational earthquake forecasting purposes in regions with limited earthquake catalogs. Third, it provides a straightforward, flexible, and effective approach to generate synthetic earthquake catalogs of variable length to be implemented in seismic hazard and risk analysis, overcoming all the declustering-related problems and the controversial Poisson assumption.
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来源期刊
Seismological Research Letters
Seismological Research Letters 地学-地球化学与地球物理
CiteScore
6.60
自引率
12.10%
发文量
239
审稿时长
3 months
期刊介绍: Information not localized
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