Pablo A. Guerron-Quintana, Tomohiro Hirano, Ryo Jinnai
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Bubbles, Crashes, and Economic Growth: Theory and Evidence
We analyze the ups and downs in economic growth in recent decades by constructing a model with recurrent bubbles, crashes, and endogenous growth. Once realized, bubbles crowd in investment and stimulate economic growth, but expectation about future bubbles crowds out investment and reduces economic growth. We identify bubbly episodes by estimating the model using the US data. Counterfactual simulations suggest that the IT and housing bubbles not only caused economic booms but also lifted US GDP by almost 2 percentage points permanently, but the economy could have grown even faster if people had believed that asset bubbles would never arise. (JEL E22, E23, E32, E44, G14, R31)
期刊介绍：
American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics focuses on studies of aggregate fluctuations and growth, and the role of policy in that context. Such studies often borrow from and interact with research in other fields, such as monetary theory, industrial organization, finance, labor economics, political economy, public finance, international economics, and development economics. To the extent that they make a contribution to macroeconomics, papers in these fields are also welcome.
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