Enhancing climate-resilient urban river restoration: predictive modeling of geomorphic changes

Abstract Urbanization and climate change are two potent forces shaping the contemporary environment. Urban rivers, integral to city life, are profoundly affected by these dynamics. While restoration efforts have yielded promising results, a persistent challenge lies in the inadequate consideration of geomorphic processes and climate change impacts in restoration planning. This study addresses this critical gap by proposing a novel approach for designing stable urban river geometries in ungauged basins. Leveraging the Soil Conservation Service (SCS) method in conjunction with General Circulation Model (GCM) data, our research focuses on determining design discharge and channel stability. Our principal finding, based on the incorporation of parameters related to precipitation, runoff, and effective discharge, indicates a projected 35% increase in the width of stable urban rivers in the future. These results underscore the urgency of integrating climate change considerations into urban river restoration initiatives. Neglecting this imperative aspect risks the failure of restoration projects, particularly in addressing geomorphic challenges intensified by climate change. This research offers a valuable framework for future restoration efforts, ultimately contributing to the resilience and sustainability of urban river ecosystems.