Exploring NAO influence on waterbirds abundance through hydrological changes in a Mediterranean coastal wetland

Predicting how waterbird populations may respond to climate change is a major challenge for conservation, which could be addressed by understanding the effects of large-scale climate oscillations, such as the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), on breeding population size. Here, we explore the relationship between the NAO position and the abundance of waterbird breeding pairs in a protected Mediterranean coastal wetland (Mouth of the Guadalhorce River, Málaga, southern Iberian Peninsula). We found a significant and negative relationship between the winter NAO index and the abundance of grebes (r=-0.72, N=15, p<0.01), rails (r=-0.74, N=15, p<0.01), diving ducks (r=-0.56, N=15, p<0.05) and dabbling ducks (r=-0.54, N=15, p<0.05). Our results suggest that this relation is mediated by the NAO indirect effects on wetland flooded surface via changes in winter precipitation and Mediterranean sea level. These results should be considered to design appropriate environmental management strategies devoted to preventing or mitigating potential deleterious effects of the NAO variability on Mediterranean wetlands ecosystems and preserving their valuable waterbird communities.