Changes in the Functional Role of the Tejo Estuary (Portugal, Europe) According to Fish Ecological Guilds

Estuaries are extremely productive ecosystems, providing habitats for numerous aquatic species and crucial ecological services. The Tejo estuary, one of the largest European estuaries, has been thoroughly studied, and its important functional role as a nursery for several commercially important fish species is already established. In the present work, a trait-based approach was applied to functionally describe the fish community structure of the Tejo estuary and to enlighten potential changes in the ecosystem functioning at this level, following environmental changes expected to occur. To predict the distribution of species from the two most representative ecological guilds of the Tejo estuary, estuarine residents and marine migrants, species distribution models were built using an ensemble technique (combining forecasts of single models). The predictions obtained were more accurate for the marine migrants and the species distribution was strongly related with salinity, whereas estuarine species, were also influenced by depth, habitat type and river flow. The potential distributions of these ecological guilds showed that marine migrants will tend to use upstream areas in the estuary, where salinity is lower. Nonetheless, salinity is expected to increase as extreme weather events such as droughts tend to occur more frequently, decreasing favorable habitat availability for these species, and thus threatening the crucial role this ecosystem plays for these species.