体育人才选拔决策的封建手套 - 加强主观评价与客观评价之间的联系

Michael Bar-Eli , Ronnie Lidor , Franziska Lath , Jörg Schorer
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引用次数: 0

摘要

在做出体育人才选拔决定时,教练、球探、项目主管和政策制定者通常会采用两种方法:一种是主观方法,也称为 "教练之眼",即这些专业人员根据个人的观察和印象来选择或淘汰运动员;另一种是客观方法,即他们采用一种多方面的公式,对运动员的运动技能(如敏捷性和协调性)和心理能力(如领导力和积极性)进行评分,以此作为预测运动员未来成功的一种手段。在体育运动中,这两种方法通常被认为是相辅相成的,有助于做出最佳的选拔决定。在这篇概念化的文章中,我们探讨了与此类人才选拔决策相关的挑战,并将教练的眼光作为主观评估方法的一个实例。我们还讨论了在体育运动中做出选拔决策的快速和节俭启发式方法的概念,同时阐述了有界理性和人机范式。最后,除了讨论基于判断和决策模型的体育选拔决策中的某些 "内在 "局限性之外,我们还提出了增加大数据方法的理由,以此来加强目前在体育人才选拔决策中使用的主观和客观评估之间的联系。
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The feudal glove of talent-selection decisions in sport –Strengthening the link between subjective and objective assessments

When making talent-selection decisions in sport, coaches, scouts, program directors, and policymakers typically adopt two approaches: The subjective approach, also known as the coach's eye, where these professionals select or de-select athletes based on their personal observations and impressions; and the objective approach, where they apply a multi-faceted formula for awarding scores to the athletes' motor skills (such as agility and coordination) and psychological capabilities (such as leadership and motivation) – as a mean for predicting their future success. These two approaches are often perceived as complementary in the strive to reach optimal selection decisions in sport. In this conceptualized article, we examine challenges associated with such talent-selection decisions, and address the coach's eye as an example of a subjective assessment approach. We also address the concept of fast and frugal heuristics for making selection decisions in sport, while elaborating on bounded rationality and the human machine paradigm. Finally, in addition to discussing certain "built-in" limitations in sport-selection decisions, based on judgment and decision-making models, we provide a rationale for adding the big-data approach, as a mean for enhancing links between the subjective and objective assessments currently used in talent-selection decisions in sport.

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