Jyh-Huei Tai, Wei-Kuo Soong, Pei-Hua Tan, Mark Yin-Mao Wang, Po-Hsiung Lin
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Feasibility of forecasting convective rain by diagnosing intracloud lightning jumps
Abstract This study conducted a comparison of the data quality of Earth Networks (EN) and Taiwan Power Company’s Total Lightning Detection System (TLDS) and evaluated the feasibility of using intracloud (IC) lightning to issue convective rain warnings. The results indicate uncertainties in the TLDS positioning of IC lightning. When forecasting convective rain on the basis of IC lightning jumps using EN data, the mean prefigurance and postagreement scores were 0.8 and 0.67, respectively, which were more favourable than the respective TLDS scores of 0.65 and 0.47. In regions with high TLDS positioning uncertainties, the use of EN data increased the number of prefigurance and postagreement hits in each analysis zone and raised the prefigurance and postagreement scores to 0.3 and 0.5, respectively. This indicates that analyses using EN data can reduce the risk of missed convective rain warnings when diagnosing IC jumps and can reduce the false alarm rate. In this study, IC jumps preceded convective rains by a maximum of 27.5–39.3 min on average in all analysis zones across Taiwan. The results suggest that diagnosing IC jumps to forecast convective rain is feasible, but until the uncertainties in the positioning of IC lightning using TLDSs have been remedied, EN data are the more suitable diagnostic choice.
期刊介绍:
Meteorology and Atmospheric Physics accepts original research papers for publication following the recommendations of a review panel. The emphasis lies with the following topic areas:
- atmospheric dynamics and general circulation;
- synoptic meteorology;
- weather systems in specific regions, such as the tropics, the polar caps, the oceans;
- atmospheric energetics;
- numerical modeling and forecasting;
- physical and chemical processes in the atmosphere, including radiation, optical effects, electricity, and atmospheric turbulence and transport processes;
- mathematical and statistical techniques applied to meteorological data sets
Meteorology and Atmospheric Physics discusses physical and chemical processes - in both clear and cloudy atmospheres - including radiation, optical and electrical effects, precipitation and cloud microphysics.