云内闪电跃变诊断预报对流降雨的可行性

IF 1.9 4区 地球科学 Q3 METEOROLOGY & ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES Meteorology and Atmospheric Physics Pub Date : 2023-11-07 DOI:10.1007/s00703-023-00997-8
Jyh-Huei Tai, Wei-Kuo Soong, Pei-Hua Tan, Mark Yin-Mao Wang, Po-Hsiung Lin
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摘要

摘要本研究比较了地球网络(EN)和台湾电力公司总闪电探测系统(TLDS)的数据质量,并评估了利用云内闪电(IC)发布对流降雨预警的可行性。结果表明,集成电路闪电的tld定位存在不确定性。在基于IC闪电跃变的EN数据预报对流降雨时,平均预报分数为0.8分,后一致分数为0.67分,优于tld的0.65分和0.47分。在tld定位不确定性较高的区域,EN数据的使用增加了每个分析区域的预测和后一致命中数,将预测和后一致得分分别提高到0.3和0.5。这表明,利用EN数据进行分析可以减少对流降雨预警在诊断IC跳变时的漏报风险,降低误报率。在本研究中,全台湾各分析区IC跃变在对流降雨前平均最多为27.5 ~ 39.3 min。结果表明,诊断IC跳变来预测对流降雨是可行的,但在利用tlds定位IC闪电的不确定性得到纠正之前,EN数据是更合适的诊断选择。
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Feasibility of forecasting convective rain by diagnosing intracloud lightning jumps
Abstract This study conducted a comparison of the data quality of Earth Networks (EN) and Taiwan Power Company’s Total Lightning Detection System (TLDS) and evaluated the feasibility of using intracloud (IC) lightning to issue convective rain warnings. The results indicate uncertainties in the TLDS positioning of IC lightning. When forecasting convective rain on the basis of IC lightning jumps using EN data, the mean prefigurance and postagreement scores were 0.8 and 0.67, respectively, which were more favourable than the respective TLDS scores of 0.65 and 0.47. In regions with high TLDS positioning uncertainties, the use of EN data increased the number of prefigurance and postagreement hits in each analysis zone and raised the prefigurance and postagreement scores to 0.3 and 0.5, respectively. This indicates that analyses using EN data can reduce the risk of missed convective rain warnings when diagnosing IC jumps and can reduce the false alarm rate. In this study, IC jumps preceded convective rains by a maximum of 27.5–39.3 min on average in all analysis zones across Taiwan. The results suggest that diagnosing IC jumps to forecast convective rain is feasible, but until the uncertainties in the positioning of IC lightning using TLDSs have been remedied, EN data are the more suitable diagnostic choice.
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来源期刊
Meteorology and Atmospheric Physics
Meteorology and Atmospheric Physics 地学-气象与大气科学
CiteScore
4.00
自引率
5.00%
发文量
87
审稿时长
6-12 weeks
期刊介绍: Meteorology and Atmospheric Physics accepts original research papers for publication following the recommendations of a review panel. The emphasis lies with the following topic areas: - atmospheric dynamics and general circulation; - synoptic meteorology; - weather systems in specific regions, such as the tropics, the polar caps, the oceans; - atmospheric energetics; - numerical modeling and forecasting; - physical and chemical processes in the atmosphere, including radiation, optical effects, electricity, and atmospheric turbulence and transport processes; - mathematical and statistical techniques applied to meteorological data sets Meteorology and Atmospheric Physics discusses physical and chemical processes - in both clear and cloudy atmospheres - including radiation, optical and electrical effects, precipitation and cloud microphysics.
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