云内闪电跃变诊断预报对流降雨的可行性

IF 1.9 4区 地球科学 Q3 METEOROLOGY & ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES Meteorology and Atmospheric Physics Pub Date : 2023-11-07 DOI:10.1007/s00703-023-00997-8
Jyh-Huei Tai, Wei-Kuo Soong, Pei-Hua Tan, Mark Yin-Mao Wang, Po-Hsiung Lin
{"title":"云内闪电跃变诊断预报对流降雨的可行性","authors":"Jyh-Huei Tai, Wei-Kuo Soong, Pei-Hua Tan, Mark Yin-Mao Wang, Po-Hsiung Lin","doi":"10.1007/s00703-023-00997-8","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"Abstract This study conducted a comparison of the data quality of Earth Networks (EN) and Taiwan Power Company’s Total Lightning Detection System (TLDS) and evaluated the feasibility of using intracloud (IC) lightning to issue convective rain warnings. The results indicate uncertainties in the TLDS positioning of IC lightning. When forecasting convective rain on the basis of IC lightning jumps using EN data, the mean prefigurance and postagreement scores were 0.8 and 0.67, respectively, which were more favourable than the respective TLDS scores of 0.65 and 0.47. In regions with high TLDS positioning uncertainties, the use of EN data increased the number of prefigurance and postagreement hits in each analysis zone and raised the prefigurance and postagreement scores to 0.3 and 0.5, respectively. This indicates that analyses using EN data can reduce the risk of missed convective rain warnings when diagnosing IC jumps and can reduce the false alarm rate. In this study, IC jumps preceded convective rains by a maximum of 27.5–39.3 min on average in all analysis zones across Taiwan. The results suggest that diagnosing IC jumps to forecast convective rain is feasible, but until the uncertainties in the positioning of IC lightning using TLDSs have been remedied, EN data are the more suitable diagnostic choice.","PeriodicalId":51132,"journal":{"name":"Meteorology and Atmospheric Physics","volume":"16 3","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":1.9000,"publicationDate":"2023-11-07","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"0","resultStr":"{\"title\":\"Feasibility of forecasting convective rain by diagnosing intracloud lightning jumps\",\"authors\":\"Jyh-Huei Tai, Wei-Kuo Soong, Pei-Hua Tan, Mark Yin-Mao Wang, Po-Hsiung Lin\",\"doi\":\"10.1007/s00703-023-00997-8\",\"DOIUrl\":null,\"url\":null,\"abstract\":\"Abstract This study conducted a comparison of the data quality of Earth Networks (EN) and Taiwan Power Company’s Total Lightning Detection System (TLDS) and evaluated the feasibility of using intracloud (IC) lightning to issue convective rain warnings. The results indicate uncertainties in the TLDS positioning of IC lightning. When forecasting convective rain on the basis of IC lightning jumps using EN data, the mean prefigurance and postagreement scores were 0.8 and 0.67, respectively, which were more favourable than the respective TLDS scores of 0.65 and 0.47. In regions with high TLDS positioning uncertainties, the use of EN data increased the number of prefigurance and postagreement hits in each analysis zone and raised the prefigurance and postagreement scores to 0.3 and 0.5, respectively. This indicates that analyses using EN data can reduce the risk of missed convective rain warnings when diagnosing IC jumps and can reduce the false alarm rate. In this study, IC jumps preceded convective rains by a maximum of 27.5–39.3 min on average in all analysis zones across Taiwan. The results suggest that diagnosing IC jumps to forecast convective rain is feasible, but until the uncertainties in the positioning of IC lightning using TLDSs have been remedied, EN data are the more suitable diagnostic choice.\",\"PeriodicalId\":51132,\"journal\":{\"name\":\"Meteorology and Atmospheric Physics\",\"volume\":\"16 3\",\"pages\":\"0\"},\"PeriodicalIF\":1.9000,\"publicationDate\":\"2023-11-07\",\"publicationTypes\":\"Journal Article\",\"fieldsOfStudy\":null,\"isOpenAccess\":false,\"openAccessPdf\":\"\",\"citationCount\":\"0\",\"resultStr\":null,\"platform\":\"Semanticscholar\",\"paperid\":null,\"PeriodicalName\":\"Meteorology and Atmospheric Physics\",\"FirstCategoryId\":\"1085\",\"ListUrlMain\":\"https://doi.org/10.1007/s00703-023-00997-8\",\"RegionNum\":4,\"RegionCategory\":\"地球科学\",\"ArticlePicture\":[],\"TitleCN\":null,\"AbstractTextCN\":null,\"PMCID\":null,\"EPubDate\":\"\",\"PubModel\":\"\",\"JCR\":\"Q3\",\"JCRName\":\"METEOROLOGY & ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES\",\"Score\":null,\"Total\":0}","platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Meteorology and Atmospheric Physics","FirstCategoryId":"1085","ListUrlMain":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s00703-023-00997-8","RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q3","JCRName":"METEOROLOGY & ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES","Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0

摘要

摘要本研究比较了地球网络(EN)和台湾电力公司总闪电探测系统(TLDS)的数据质量,并评估了利用云内闪电(IC)发布对流降雨预警的可行性。结果表明,集成电路闪电的tld定位存在不确定性。在基于IC闪电跃变的EN数据预报对流降雨时,平均预报分数为0.8分,后一致分数为0.67分,优于tld的0.65分和0.47分。在tld定位不确定性较高的区域,EN数据的使用增加了每个分析区域的预测和后一致命中数,将预测和后一致得分分别提高到0.3和0.5。这表明,利用EN数据进行分析可以减少对流降雨预警在诊断IC跳变时的漏报风险,降低误报率。在本研究中,全台湾各分析区IC跃变在对流降雨前平均最多为27.5 ~ 39.3 min。结果表明,诊断IC跳变来预测对流降雨是可行的,但在利用tlds定位IC闪电的不确定性得到纠正之前,EN数据是更合适的诊断选择。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。

摘要图片

查看原文
分享 分享
微信好友 朋友圈 QQ好友 复制链接
本刊更多论文
Feasibility of forecasting convective rain by diagnosing intracloud lightning jumps
Abstract This study conducted a comparison of the data quality of Earth Networks (EN) and Taiwan Power Company’s Total Lightning Detection System (TLDS) and evaluated the feasibility of using intracloud (IC) lightning to issue convective rain warnings. The results indicate uncertainties in the TLDS positioning of IC lightning. When forecasting convective rain on the basis of IC lightning jumps using EN data, the mean prefigurance and postagreement scores were 0.8 and 0.67, respectively, which were more favourable than the respective TLDS scores of 0.65 and 0.47. In regions with high TLDS positioning uncertainties, the use of EN data increased the number of prefigurance and postagreement hits in each analysis zone and raised the prefigurance and postagreement scores to 0.3 and 0.5, respectively. This indicates that analyses using EN data can reduce the risk of missed convective rain warnings when diagnosing IC jumps and can reduce the false alarm rate. In this study, IC jumps preceded convective rains by a maximum of 27.5–39.3 min on average in all analysis zones across Taiwan. The results suggest that diagnosing IC jumps to forecast convective rain is feasible, but until the uncertainties in the positioning of IC lightning using TLDSs have been remedied, EN data are the more suitable diagnostic choice.
求助全文
通过发布文献求助,成功后即可免费获取论文全文。 去求助
来源期刊
Meteorology and Atmospheric Physics
Meteorology and Atmospheric Physics 地学-气象与大气科学
CiteScore
4.00
自引率
5.00%
发文量
87
审稿时长
6-12 weeks
期刊介绍: Meteorology and Atmospheric Physics accepts original research papers for publication following the recommendations of a review panel. The emphasis lies with the following topic areas: - atmospheric dynamics and general circulation; - synoptic meteorology; - weather systems in specific regions, such as the tropics, the polar caps, the oceans; - atmospheric energetics; - numerical modeling and forecasting; - physical and chemical processes in the atmosphere, including radiation, optical effects, electricity, and atmospheric turbulence and transport processes; - mathematical and statistical techniques applied to meteorological data sets Meteorology and Atmospheric Physics discusses physical and chemical processes - in both clear and cloudy atmospheres - including radiation, optical and electrical effects, precipitation and cloud microphysics.
期刊最新文献
Forecasting the El Niño southern oscillation: physics, bias correction and combined models Squall lines and turbulent exchange at the Amazon forest-atmosphere interface Synoptic patterns associated with heavy rainfall events in the metropolitan region of Porto Alegre, Brazil Ensemble characteristics of an analog ensemble (AE) system for simultaneous prediction of multiple surface meteorological variables at local scale Studying the effect of sea spray using large eddy simulations coupled with air–sea bulk flux models under strong wind conditions
×
引用
GB/T 7714-2015
复制
MLA
复制
APA
复制
导出至
BibTeX EndNote RefMan NoteFirst NoteExpress
×
×
提示
您的信息不完整,为了账户安全,请先补充。
现在去补充
×
提示
您因"违规操作"
具体请查看互助需知
我知道了
×
提示
现在去查看 取消
×
提示
确定
0
微信
客服QQ
Book学术公众号 扫码关注我们
反馈
×
意见反馈
请填写您的意见或建议
请填写您的手机或邮箱
已复制链接
已复制链接
快去分享给好友吧!
我知道了
×
扫码分享
扫码分享
Book学术官方微信
Book学术文献互助
Book学术文献互助群
群 号:481959085
Book学术
文献互助 智能选刊 最新文献 互助须知 联系我们:info@booksci.cn
Book学术提供免费学术资源搜索服务,方便国内外学者检索中英文文献。致力于提供最便捷和优质的服务体验。
Copyright © 2023 Book学术 All rights reserved.
ghs 京公网安备 11010802042870号 京ICP备2023020795号-1