Testing the link between conspiracy theories and violent extremism: a linguistic coding approach to far-right shooter manifestos

ABSTRACTConspiracy theories have been linked to violent extremist attacks, creating a view that holding one may be a motivating factor for engaging in violence. The perpetrators of the 2019 Christchurch, Poway, and El Paso shootings each cited the ‘Great Replacement’ white genocide conspiracy theory in manifestos distributed online prior to the attacks. This research conducts a close reading of these manifestos and the original conspiracy theory to test the link between holding a conspiracy theory and engaging in outgroup-oriented violence. It compares Renaud Camus’ Great Replacement text (You Will Not Replace Us) and the manifestos of the three violent extremists that cite this theory (The Great Replacement, The Inconvenient Truth, An Open Letter). Three theoretical frameworks provide the basis for the analysis: (1) The presence of conspiracy theory elements (agency, coalition, threat, secrecy), (2) radical narrative constructs (crisis, solution, justification), and (3) mobilising emotions (anger, contempt, disgust – ANCODI). All four sources contained the elements of a conspiracy theory, crisis narratives, and mobilising ANCODI emotions as the dominant emotions. This suggests that the original conspiracy theory may have influenced the perpetrators. This research furthers academic debate, both conceptually and empirically, about the nature of connectivity between conspiracy theories and violent extremism. AcknowledgementThe authors would like to thank the external coders, in particular Ms Jacqueline Albert, for their valuable assistance with the coding process.Disclosure statementNo potential conflict of interest was reported by the author(s).Notes1 R v Brenton Harrison Tarrant sentencing remarks, High Court of New Zealand, (2020).2 R. Sanchez & S. Chan, ‘California synagogue shooter sentenced to life in prison without the possibility of parole’, CNN News, (30 September 2021).3 A. Martinez & D. Borunda, ‘What we know about the trial of suspected El Paso Walmart shooter Patrick Crusius’, El Paso Times, (4 August 2021).4 Based on Baele’s four nefarious archetypal actors present in conspiratorial narratives. See Baele (Citation2019, p. 711).Additional informationNotes on contributorsJana VanderweeMs. Jana Vanderwee has a background in Australian law enforcement. She completed her Master of Research in terrorism studies at the Department of Security Studies and Criminology, Macquarie University.Julian DrooganDr. Julian Droogan is Associate Professor of terrorism studies at the Department of Security Studies and Criminology, Macquarie University. He serves as Director of Research and Innovation, and as Editor for the Journal of Policing, Intelligence, and Counter Terrorism.