欧盟内部中东欧国家经济结构的趋同

Łukasz Markowski
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引用次数: 1

摘要

目的:评估欧盟内中欧和东欧国家经济结构的相似性。研究设计&;方法:采用分层聚类分析方法对2004年和2019年进行研究。研究发现:研究发现了分化和趋同的迹象。一方面,应注意经济子部门的日益多样化,所有欧盟成员国都相当明确地划分为两类国家(老牌国家和中东欧国家),或者各国经济子部门的平均总增加值发生了微小但积极的变化。与此同时,中东欧国家与由12个欧元区国家组成的“模型”结构之间的欧几里得距离减小,表明趋同。然而,比较所有中东欧国家的情况,不能明确地说,采用欧元对某一国家的经济结构与组成该集团的旧欧盟国家的经济结构趋同产生了显著的影响。然而,这仍然是对真正趋同的部分评估,并不是决定性的。启示/建议:根据所进行的研究,很难得出明确的结论。欧盟内部总增加值结构的相似性反映了以趋同和分化趋势(劳动生产率、工资水平、消费、储蓄、劳动力市场状况、投资流入、对外贸易、商业周期同步)为特征的经济体中发生的各种过程和现象。这就是为什么加入共同市场和货币联盟必须得到制度和监管改革的支持。所有观察到的差异方面都是重新考虑应促进中东欧国家国内生产总值结构趋同的经济政策的前提。与欧洲一体化进程相关的推动力可能会为各个国家塑造不同的发展轨迹。贡献:提出的研究使评估中东欧国家的趋同成为可能。这是一个非常重要的问题,因为欧盟经济面临新的挑战,例如大流行病和乌克兰战争的影响,并且鉴于官方的趋同标准与宏观经济现实不符。
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Konwergencja struktur gospodarczych krajów Europy Środkowo-Wschodniej w ramach Unii Europejskiej
Objective : To assess the similarity of the economic structures of Central and Eastern Europe countries within the European Union. Research Design & Methods : The study was conducted with the use of an hierarchical cluster analysis for the years 2004 and 2019. Findings : The research uncovered signs of both divergence and convergence. On the one hand, attention should be paid to the increased diversification of economic sub-sectors, a fairly clear division of all EU members into two blocks of countries (old countries and CEE countries) or small but positive changes in the average gross value added in economic sub-sectors in the countries. At the same time, the Euclidean distances between the CEE countries and the “model” structure consisting of 12 euro area countries have decreased, which indicates convergence. However, comparing the situation of all CEE countries, it cannot be unequivocally stated that the adoption of the euro had a noticeable impact on the convergence of the economic structure of a given country with the structure of the old EU countries that formed this group. However, this remains a partial assessment of real convergence and it is not definitive. Implications / Recommendations : Based on the conducted research, it is difficult to formulate definitive conclusions. The similarity of gross value added structures within the EU reflects various processes and phenomena taking place in economies that are characterised by both convergence and divergence tendencies (labour productivity, wage level, consumption, savings, situation on the labour market, investment inflow, foreign trade, synchronisation of business cycles). This is why participation in the common market and monetary union must be supported by institutional and regulatory reforms. All the observed divergence aspects are a premise for reconsidering economic policies that should foster the convergence of the GDP structures of the CEE countries. The impulse associated with the process of European integration could shape different development trajectories for individual countries. Contribution : The research presented makes it possible to assess the convergence of the CEE countries. This is a very important issue in the context of new challenges for EU economies, such as the effects of the pandemic and war in Ukraine, and in view of the inadequacy of the official convergence criteria to the macroeconomic reality.
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