Yuan Lei, Xing Cao, BinBin Ni, Song Fu, TaoRong Luo, XiaoYu Wang
{"title":"基于数据同化的外辐射带电子通量预测模型","authors":"Yuan Lei, Xing Cao, BinBin Ni, Song Fu, TaoRong Luo, XiaoYu Wang","doi":"10.26464/epp2023079","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"Because radiation belt electrons can pose a potential threat to the safety of satellites orbiting in space, it is of great importance to develop a reliable model that can predict the highly dynamic variations in outer radiation belt electron fluxes. In the present study, we develop a forecast model of radiation belt electron fluxes based on the data assimilation method, in terms of Van Allen Probe measurements combined with three-dimensional radiation belt numerical simulations. Our forecast model can cover the entire outer radiation belt with a high temporal resolution (1 hour) and a spatial resolution of 0.25 <italic>L</italic> over a wide range of both electron energy (0.1–5.0 MeV) and pitch angle (5°–90°). On the basis of this model, we forecast hourly electron fluxes for the next 1, 2, and 3 days during an intense geomagnetic storm and evaluate the corresponding prediction performance. Our model can reasonably predict the storm-time evolution of radiation belt electrons with high prediction efficiency (up to ~0.8–1). The best prediction performance is found for ~0.3–3 MeV electrons at <italic>L</italic> = ~3.25–4.5, which extends to higher <italic>L</italic> and lower energies with increasing pitch angle. Our results demonstrate that the forecast model developed can be a powerful tool to predict the spatiotemporal changes in outer radiation belt electron fluxes, and the model has both scientific significance and practical implications.","PeriodicalId":45246,"journal":{"name":"Earth and Planetary Physics","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":2.9000,"publicationDate":"2023-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"0","resultStr":"{\"title\":\"A data assimilation-based forecast model of outer radiation belt electron fluxes\",\"authors\":\"Yuan Lei, Xing Cao, BinBin Ni, Song Fu, TaoRong Luo, XiaoYu Wang\",\"doi\":\"10.26464/epp2023079\",\"DOIUrl\":null,\"url\":null,\"abstract\":\"Because radiation belt electrons can pose a potential threat to the safety of satellites orbiting in space, it is of great importance to develop a reliable model that can predict the highly dynamic variations in outer radiation belt electron fluxes. In the present study, we develop a forecast model of radiation belt electron fluxes based on the data assimilation method, in terms of Van Allen Probe measurements combined with three-dimensional radiation belt numerical simulations. Our forecast model can cover the entire outer radiation belt with a high temporal resolution (1 hour) and a spatial resolution of 0.25 <italic>L</italic> over a wide range of both electron energy (0.1–5.0 MeV) and pitch angle (5°–90°). On the basis of this model, we forecast hourly electron fluxes for the next 1, 2, and 3 days during an intense geomagnetic storm and evaluate the corresponding prediction performance. Our model can reasonably predict the storm-time evolution of radiation belt electrons with high prediction efficiency (up to ~0.8–1). The best prediction performance is found for ~0.3–3 MeV electrons at <italic>L</italic> = ~3.25–4.5, which extends to higher <italic>L</italic> and lower energies with increasing pitch angle. Our results demonstrate that the forecast model developed can be a powerful tool to predict the spatiotemporal changes in outer radiation belt electron fluxes, and the model has both scientific significance and practical implications.\",\"PeriodicalId\":45246,\"journal\":{\"name\":\"Earth and Planetary Physics\",\"volume\":null,\"pages\":null},\"PeriodicalIF\":2.9000,\"publicationDate\":\"2023-01-01\",\"publicationTypes\":\"Journal Article\",\"fieldsOfStudy\":null,\"isOpenAccess\":false,\"openAccessPdf\":\"\",\"citationCount\":\"0\",\"resultStr\":null,\"platform\":\"Semanticscholar\",\"paperid\":null,\"PeriodicalName\":\"Earth and Planetary Physics\",\"FirstCategoryId\":\"1085\",\"ListUrlMain\":\"https://doi.org/10.26464/epp2023079\",\"RegionNum\":3,\"RegionCategory\":\"地球科学\",\"ArticlePicture\":[],\"TitleCN\":null,\"AbstractTextCN\":null,\"PMCID\":null,\"EPubDate\":\"\",\"PubModel\":\"\",\"JCR\":\"\",\"JCRName\":\"\",\"Score\":null,\"Total\":0}","platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Earth and Planetary Physics","FirstCategoryId":"1085","ListUrlMain":"https://doi.org/10.26464/epp2023079","RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"","JCRName":"","Score":null,"Total":0}
A data assimilation-based forecast model of outer radiation belt electron fluxes
Because radiation belt electrons can pose a potential threat to the safety of satellites orbiting in space, it is of great importance to develop a reliable model that can predict the highly dynamic variations in outer radiation belt electron fluxes. In the present study, we develop a forecast model of radiation belt electron fluxes based on the data assimilation method, in terms of Van Allen Probe measurements combined with three-dimensional radiation belt numerical simulations. Our forecast model can cover the entire outer radiation belt with a high temporal resolution (1 hour) and a spatial resolution of 0.25 L over a wide range of both electron energy (0.1–5.0 MeV) and pitch angle (5°–90°). On the basis of this model, we forecast hourly electron fluxes for the next 1, 2, and 3 days during an intense geomagnetic storm and evaluate the corresponding prediction performance. Our model can reasonably predict the storm-time evolution of radiation belt electrons with high prediction efficiency (up to ~0.8–1). The best prediction performance is found for ~0.3–3 MeV electrons at L = ~3.25–4.5, which extends to higher L and lower energies with increasing pitch angle. Our results demonstrate that the forecast model developed can be a powerful tool to predict the spatiotemporal changes in outer radiation belt electron fluxes, and the model has both scientific significance and practical implications.