地震发生模型参数的不确定性对城市建筑组合损失估算的影响

IF 2.6 3区 地球科学 Q2 GEOCHEMISTRY & GEOPHYSICS Seismological Research Letters Pub Date : 2023-10-20 DOI:10.1785/0220230248
Alessandro Damiani, Valerio Poggi, Chiara Scaini, Mohsen Kohrangi, Paolo Bazzurro
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引用次数: 0

摘要

在巨灾风险管理领域,了解地震等自然灾害造成的潜在社会经济损失至关重要。概率地震风险模型的构建是复杂的,需要调整几个重要的参数来表示该地区的地震危险性,确定暴露库存特征及其对地面运动的易损性。由于显著的不确定性可能与每个模型组成部分相关联,因此损失估计通常是高度不稳定的。然而,为了减少概念复杂性和计算负担,在许多实际应用中,这些不确定性要么没有得到充分处理,要么完全被忽略。随后的损失估计的虚假高保真度可能会误导决策策略。因此,评估模型输入参数估计值的可变性对最终风险结果及其相关贡献的影响是有用的。为此,我们对伊斯法罕(伊朗)的城市地震风险评估结果进行了敏感性分析。在概率地震灾害模型中,控制地震发生的参数值采用了系统变分法。建立了不同风险指标的投入产出相对变化曲线,以识别对输入不确定性最敏感的参数。我们的研究结果可以为风险管理者和从业者在建立地震危害和风险模型的过程中提供有用的支持。我们发现,Gutenberg-Richter a和b值、最大震级和阈值是重要风险度量(如475年和平均年损失)变动性的重要贡献者,通常情况下,更频繁的损失是最敏感的。
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Impact of the Uncertainty in the Parameters of the Earthquake Occurrence Model on Loss Estimates of Urban Building Portfolios
Abstract Understanding the potential socioeconomic losses due to natural hazards, such as earthquakes, is of foremost importance in the field of catastrophe risk management. The construction of a probabilistic seismic risk model is complex and requires the tuning of several parameters essential to represent the seismic hazard of the region, the definition of the exposed inventory characteristics, and its vulnerability to ground motion. Because significant uncertainties could be associated with each model component, the loss estimates are often highly volatile. Nevertheless, to reduce the conceptual complexity and the computational burden, in many real-life applications these uncertainties are either not adequately treated or neglected altogether. The false high fidelity of the ensuing loss estimates can mislead decision-making strategies. Hence, it is useful to assess the influence that the variability in the estimated values of the model input parameters may exert on the final risk results and their relevant contributions. To this purpose, we have performed a sensitivity analysis of the results of an urban seismic risk assessment for Isfahan (Iran). Systematic variations have been applied to the values of the parameters that control the earthquake occurrence in the probabilistic seismic hazard model. Curves of input–output relative variations were built for different risk metrics with the goal of identifying the parameters most sensitive to input uncertainty. Our findings can be useful to support risk managers and practitioners in the process of building seismic hazard and risk models. We found that the Gutenberg–Richter a and b values, the maximum magnitude, and the threshold magnitude are large contributors to the variability of important risk measures, such as the 475 yr and the average annual loss, with the more frequent losses being, in general, most sensitive.
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来源期刊
Seismological Research Letters
Seismological Research Letters 地学-地球化学与地球物理
CiteScore
6.60
自引率
12.10%
发文量
239
审稿时长
3 months
期刊介绍: Information not localized
期刊最新文献
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