Back to black? Macroeconomic analysis of hard coal sector in European Union 1990-2030

Purpose: The purpose of the article is to present the results of a PEST analysis of the legal, economic, social and technological determinants of hard coal market development in the European Union from 1990 to 2030. Design/methodology/approach: The research process was carried out with the use of four methods: analysis and synthesis (1) critical review of the literature (2), statistical techniques (3) and an industry case study (4). Findings: Detail regulatory (legal), economic, social (socio-cultural) and technology variables affecting the hard coal market have been identified. All the factors examined exhibited a destimulating effect on the development of the market, from the perspective of the entities operating on the hard coal extraction and utilization market in the European Union. The most pronounced negative effect stems from the social factors. The impact of the legal and economic determinants is of similar magnitude, whereas technological changes show the lowest potency in this regard. Research limitations/implications: Dynamic geopolitical changes and high susceptibility to interventionism can significantly affect the deviations of point forecasts in the pest coal industry in the long run. Practical implications: PEST analysis is used to assess the development of economic sectors regardless of the industry life cycle phase. It can also help determine a given industry's life cycle phase and its future migration trends in practice. Originality/value: The originality of this article lies in the employment of the quantification of macroenvironmental areas significantly affecting the industry, using an authorially modified PEST-based analysis. Keywords: coal market; hard coal trade; economy of fossil fuels; PEST analysis. Category of the paper: Research paper.