When Pre-Release Optimism Meets Post-Release Reality: Understanding Reentry Success Through a Longitudinal Framework Assessing Pre- and Post-Release Perceptions

In the identity theory of desistance, optimism is important to individual transformation. Yet unfounded optimism could be detrimental in reentry. This study developed and tested a typology of the direction and accuracy of pre-release expectations. Using longitudinal data collected pre- and post-release from 369 men and women released from prison or jail in six states, we assessed which patterns (realistic optimism, unrealistic optimism, realistic pessimism, unrealistic pessimism) predict reentry success at 6- and 12-months post-release, including finding employment and housing and avoiding criminal behavior, rearrest, and illicit drug use. Realistic optimism was found to be positively associated with reentry success in some domains. Implications for reentry practitioners are discussed.