Passenger Flow Forecast for Low Carbon Urban Transport Based on Bi-Level Programming Model

In the context of low-carbon city development, this paper further implements a rail transit passenger flow forecasting method to optimize energy consumption by combining the MMA allocation model with a two-tier planning model for carbon emission control. Through this approach, this paper not only fills the gap of rail transportation planning theories and methods compatible with low-carbon city development, but also emphasizes the importance of energy consumption in transportation planning. Based on a two-tier planning model, this paper considers the Starkberg game between multi-modal and multi-type passenger flow forecasting of rail transit and CO2 emissions of integrated transportation systems. By optimizing the allocation of users in the transportation network from the perspective of both users and planners, while optimizing the CO2 emissions of the integrated transportation system, the dual optimization of energy consumption and environmental benefits is achieved. The method will also be tested in Shanghai, and this paper will comparatively study three different carbon emission control schemes. By assigning passenger flows to the entire transportation system network in Shanghai based on information from the Fourth Integrated Transport Survey, including passenger flows on each road in the road network, passenger flows on each rail line, and characteristic indicators, this paper provides a reliable data base. This study provides a solid foundation for planning the layout of rail transit in a low-carbon mode and makes a positive contribution to sustainable urban development by optimizing energy consumption.