Comparative and Prospective Evaluation of the Carbon Potential of the Mangrove of the Sine-Saloum Delta (Senegal) from 2016 to 2021

With the rupture of the Sangomar spit and climate change, ecosystem functions such as carbon absorption and storage by the Saloum Delta Biosphere Reserve are threatened. Initiatives are carried out as a response to the degradation of the mangrove ecosystem, such as the PRECEMA project. To measure its impact, an assessment of the carbon potential of the mangrove was conducted in 2016 on permanent plots. The present study is part of the monitoring of carbon potential. It aims to contribute to the updating of information on the evaluation of carbon storage potential. The method “afforestation and reforestation of degraded mangrove habitats on a large scale CDM or AR-AM0014 version 04.0” was applied. The mangrove vegetation assessed is dominated by Rhizophora racemosa with 69.9% of the total. With a relatively bushy habit (height = 1.91 m), the height distribution shows a right skewness (Skewness = 2.17; Kurtosis = 4.07) with a tail containing more observations than a normal distribution. The distribution is observed for diameters is skewed with Skewness = 1.5 but Kurtosis = 2.3. Thus the stand is young with an average diameter of 3.90 cm and 79.6% of the trees have a diameter 5 cm. The annual increase in carbon potential of the mangrove has decreased by 80% in 5 years (2016 assessment - 2021 assessment). For a 15-year period, the total carbon stock projected by the model increases globally from 201.396 TeqCO2 in 2011 to 277,318 TeqCO2 in 2026. The projections showed an overall annual stock decrease of 14,164 TeqCO2 (94%). For 2021, the total projected stock (270.289 TeqCO2) is slightly higher than the assessed stock (251.059 TeqCO2), a difference of 7%. Also, the projected annual carbon stock for 2021 (2844 TeqCO2) is higher than the assessed stock (1353 TeqCO2), a gap of 52%.