销售与清单比率,待售库存,销售数量和房屋价值

Xingrui Zhang, Yunpeng Wang, Eunhwa Yang, Shuai Xu, Yihang Yu
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引用次数: 0

摘要

本文的目的有两个:首先,观察销售清单比(SLR)/待售库存(FSI)/销售数量临近预测(SCN)与实际/名义住房价值之间的关系,其次,制作一本经验证据手册,可以作为未来研究这一主题的基础。设计/方法/方法本文使用住房经济学领域中最常见的三种因果关系检验,广泛地汇编了经验证据。分析方法包括滞后Pearson相关检验、Granger因果检验和协整检验。结果:SLR/FSI/SCN与房屋名义价值和实际价值之间存在因果关系。SLR和SCN与房屋价值呈长期正相关,而FSI与房屋价值呈负相关。用消费者价格指数(CPI)调整住房价值来得出实际住房价值可能会改变因果关系的方向。区分长期关系和时间动态是至关重要的,因为FSI与名义房价表现出积极的即时脉冲响应关系,尽管长期相关为负。原创性/价值单反/FSI/SCN是最近才开始记录的住房市场参数,在研究中很少使用。迄今为止,房地产市场研究一直围绕着失业率等传统宏观经济指标展开。据作者所知,本研究是最早将这三个参数引入住房市场研究的研究之一。
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Sale to list ratio, for-sale inventory, sale count, and housing value
Purpose The purpose of the paper is twofold: first, to observe the relationship between sale to list ratio (SLR)/ for-sale inventory (FSI)/ sale count nowcast (SCN) and real/nominal housing value, and second, to produce a handbook of empirical evidence that can serve as a foundation for future research on this topic. Design/methodology/approach This paper broadly compiles empirical evidence, using three of the most common causality tests in the field of housing economics. The analysis methods include lagged Pearson correlation test, Granger causality test and cointegration test. Findings Causal relationships were observed between SLR/FSI/SCN and both nominal and real housing values. SLR and SCN showed positive long-term correlations with housing value, whereas FSI had a negative correlation. Adjusting the housing value with the Consumer Price Index (CPI) to derive real housing values could potentially alter the direction of the causal relationships. It is crucial to distinguish the long-term relationship from temporal dynamics, as FSI displayed a positive immediate impulse–response relationship with nominal housing price despite the negative long-term correlation. Originality/value SLR/FSI/SCN are housing market parameters that have only recently begun to be documented and have seen little use in research. So far, housing market research has revolved around traditional macroeconomic indicators such as unemployment rate. To the best of the authors’ knowledge, this study is one of the first studies that introduce these three parameters into housing market research.
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CiteScore
2.80
自引率
29.40%
发文量
68
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