Tourism policy in Vietnam: an evaluation using the difference-in-differences model

Today Vietnam is well-known not only for its long history but also its rich culture and magnificent natural environment. Vietnam is a developing socialist-oriented market economy, which heavily depends on agriculture, the export of raw materials, foreign direct investment, and tourism. In particular, the opening of the Vietnamese economy and a complete overhaul of the government’s economic policy have played a significant role in the growth of the tourist economy over the past ten years. Recognizing the outstanding contribution of tourism to the national economy, the government decided to boost the tourism industry and as a first launched Tourism policy 2017. Developed from modernization theory and policy implementation theory, this study aims to measure how successful this policy was using the difference-in-difference estimation with two observed periods: 2014–2016 and 2017–2019. This model has never been applied to the tourism sector before. Unfortunately, the effectiveness of the tourism policy is not found. The factors driving the growth of tourism revenue are the trained workforce and a dynamic environment with the participation of a large number of businesses per year. Firstly, this stage (2017–2019) could be seen as the time for the policy to reach out to localities, thus it has not been effective. Secondly, this policy was not yet powerful enough to promote breakthrough growth in comparison with the previous period. Lastly, the policy for tourism development was lack of information, funds, processes, in order for the parties involved in tourism activities could access. Based on these findings, some recommendations are made. The findings may serve as a value reference for policymakers in Vietnam and other nations.