Use of interpretive machine learning and a crop model to investigate the impact of environment and management on soybean yield gap

Context Management and environmental conditions are the main factors influencing yield of soybean (Glycine max (L.) Merr.). Despite an increase in average soybean yield in recent years in Iran, a considerable gap remains between actual yield and potential yield.Aims The objective of this study was to identify critical climate and management factors affecting soybean yield in Iran’s major soybean production area.Methods A combination of machine learning approaches (using gradient boosted decision trees, XGBoost) and the SSM-iCrop2 simulation model was used. Critical management factors affecting soybean yield were determined through interpretive machine learning using information collected from 268 soybean fields over a 5-year period. Potential yield and water-limited potential yield at six weather stations were estimated for 30years via the SSM-iCrop2 simulation model. Water limitation was determined by considering the ratio of water-limited yield potential to potential yield, and heat stress status was quantified as the number of days with maximum temperature >36°C during the soybean growing season.Key results The XGBoost models adequately described the observed changes in soybean yield. Root-mean-square error and Lin’s concordance correlation coefficient values of the calibrated model were 262kgha−1 and 0.96, respectively, which indicated that the predictor variables could describe most of the variation in soybean yield for the studied dataset.Conclusions We identified 15 climatic and management variables that affect soybean yield. A large part of the studied area is under high water stress and low heat stress.Implications Optimal planting date and improved irrigation management are the main options for reducing the yield gap in the study area.