{"title":"中国太阳活动预报的未来","authors":"Dazhi Yang","doi":"10.1063/5.0172315","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"The current grid code in China in regard to solar forecasting is, in my opinion, underdeveloped, especially in contrast to the rate at which photovoltaics are being installed. As such, explaining the limitations of the grid code and resetting pathways to improve it are thought utilitarian for those scientists and policymakers who are responsible for or aware of the grid code but have not themselves worked on the problem of forecasting. In this perspective article, I should first explain with respect to China's grid code the perceived deficiencies in the current forecasting research and practices, and then outline a five-stage workflow that could completely mitigate the situation. Among other things, the over-reliance on accuracy as the basis for gauging the goodness of forecasts is identified as a root cause for the status quo, and thus, I advocate a holistic forecast verification procedure that encompasses consistency, quality, and value. With that in mind, the proposed workflow for better solar forecasting for grid integration purposes relies on the effective information flow among the weather department, grid operators, and individual plant owners, which is inline with the current grid code. What goes beyond this is that the proposal further introduces a couple of concepts called “hierarchical reconciliation” and “firm forecasting,” which are new but are able to eliminate forecast errors wholly, thus making solar power dispatchable on the system level. With a slight premium incurred, it is now possible to manage solar plants, or variable renewables in general, in the same style as managing conventional fire-powered generators.","PeriodicalId":16953,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Renewable and Sustainable Energy","volume":"14 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":1.9000,"publicationDate":"2023-09-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"0","resultStr":"{\"title\":\"The future of solar forecasting in China\",\"authors\":\"Dazhi Yang\",\"doi\":\"10.1063/5.0172315\",\"DOIUrl\":null,\"url\":null,\"abstract\":\"The current grid code in China in regard to solar forecasting is, in my opinion, underdeveloped, especially in contrast to the rate at which photovoltaics are being installed. As such, explaining the limitations of the grid code and resetting pathways to improve it are thought utilitarian for those scientists and policymakers who are responsible for or aware of the grid code but have not themselves worked on the problem of forecasting. In this perspective article, I should first explain with respect to China's grid code the perceived deficiencies in the current forecasting research and practices, and then outline a five-stage workflow that could completely mitigate the situation. Among other things, the over-reliance on accuracy as the basis for gauging the goodness of forecasts is identified as a root cause for the status quo, and thus, I advocate a holistic forecast verification procedure that encompasses consistency, quality, and value. With that in mind, the proposed workflow for better solar forecasting for grid integration purposes relies on the effective information flow among the weather department, grid operators, and individual plant owners, which is inline with the current grid code. What goes beyond this is that the proposal further introduces a couple of concepts called “hierarchical reconciliation” and “firm forecasting,” which are new but are able to eliminate forecast errors wholly, thus making solar power dispatchable on the system level. With a slight premium incurred, it is now possible to manage solar plants, or variable renewables in general, in the same style as managing conventional fire-powered generators.\",\"PeriodicalId\":16953,\"journal\":{\"name\":\"Journal of Renewable and Sustainable Energy\",\"volume\":\"14 1\",\"pages\":\"0\"},\"PeriodicalIF\":1.9000,\"publicationDate\":\"2023-09-01\",\"publicationTypes\":\"Journal Article\",\"fieldsOfStudy\":null,\"isOpenAccess\":false,\"openAccessPdf\":\"\",\"citationCount\":\"0\",\"resultStr\":null,\"platform\":\"Semanticscholar\",\"paperid\":null,\"PeriodicalName\":\"Journal of Renewable and Sustainable Energy\",\"FirstCategoryId\":\"1085\",\"ListUrlMain\":\"https://doi.org/10.1063/5.0172315\",\"RegionNum\":4,\"RegionCategory\":\"工程技术\",\"ArticlePicture\":[],\"TitleCN\":null,\"AbstractTextCN\":null,\"PMCID\":null,\"EPubDate\":\"\",\"PubModel\":\"\",\"JCR\":\"Q4\",\"JCRName\":\"ENERGY & FUELS\",\"Score\":null,\"Total\":0}","platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Journal of Renewable and Sustainable Energy","FirstCategoryId":"1085","ListUrlMain":"https://doi.org/10.1063/5.0172315","RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q4","JCRName":"ENERGY & FUELS","Score":null,"Total":0}
The current grid code in China in regard to solar forecasting is, in my opinion, underdeveloped, especially in contrast to the rate at which photovoltaics are being installed. As such, explaining the limitations of the grid code and resetting pathways to improve it are thought utilitarian for those scientists and policymakers who are responsible for or aware of the grid code but have not themselves worked on the problem of forecasting. In this perspective article, I should first explain with respect to China's grid code the perceived deficiencies in the current forecasting research and practices, and then outline a five-stage workflow that could completely mitigate the situation. Among other things, the over-reliance on accuracy as the basis for gauging the goodness of forecasts is identified as a root cause for the status quo, and thus, I advocate a holistic forecast verification procedure that encompasses consistency, quality, and value. With that in mind, the proposed workflow for better solar forecasting for grid integration purposes relies on the effective information flow among the weather department, grid operators, and individual plant owners, which is inline with the current grid code. What goes beyond this is that the proposal further introduces a couple of concepts called “hierarchical reconciliation” and “firm forecasting,” which are new but are able to eliminate forecast errors wholly, thus making solar power dispatchable on the system level. With a slight premium incurred, it is now possible to manage solar plants, or variable renewables in general, in the same style as managing conventional fire-powered generators.
期刊介绍:
The Journal of Renewable and Sustainable Energy (JRSE) is an interdisciplinary, peer-reviewed journal covering all areas of renewable and sustainable energy relevant to the physical science and engineering communities. The interdisciplinary approach of the publication ensures that the editors draw from researchers worldwide in a diverse range of fields.
Topics covered include:
Renewable energy economics and policy
Renewable energy resource assessment
Solar energy: photovoltaics, solar thermal energy, solar energy for fuels
Wind energy: wind farms, rotors and blades, on- and offshore wind conditions, aerodynamics, fluid dynamics
Bioenergy: biofuels, biomass conversion, artificial photosynthesis
Distributed energy generation: rooftop PV, distributed fuel cells, distributed wind, micro-hydrogen power generation
Power distribution & systems modeling: power electronics and controls, smart grid
Energy efficient buildings: smart windows, PV, wind, power management
Energy conversion: flexoelectric, piezoelectric, thermoelectric, other technologies
Energy storage: batteries, supercapacitors, hydrogen storage, other fuels
Fuel cells: proton exchange membrane cells, solid oxide cells, hybrid fuel cells, other
Marine and hydroelectric energy: dams, tides, waves, other
Transportation: alternative vehicle technologies, plug-in technologies, other
Geothermal energy