中国太阳活动预报的未来

IF 1.9 4区 工程技术 Q4 ENERGY & FUELS Journal of Renewable and Sustainable Energy Pub Date : 2023-09-01 DOI:10.1063/5.0172315
Dazhi Yang
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引用次数: 0

摘要

在我看来,中国目前关于太阳能预测的电网规范是不发达的,特别是与光伏发电的安装速度相比。因此,解释网格代码的局限性并重新设置路径以改进它,对于那些负责或意识到网格代码但自己没有从事预测问题的科学家和政策制定者来说,被认为是实用的。在这篇展望文章中,我应该首先就中国的网格代码解释当前预测研究和实践中存在的缺陷,然后概述一个可以完全缓解这种情况的五阶段工作流程。在其他事情中,过度依赖准确性作为衡量预测好坏的基础被认为是现状的根本原因,因此,我提倡一个包含一致性、质量和价值的整体预测验证过程。考虑到这一点,为电网整合目的而提出的更好的太阳能预报工作流程依赖于气象部门、电网运营商和个体电厂所有者之间的有效信息流,这与当前的电网代码是一致的。除此之外,该提案还进一步引入了两个概念,称为“分层调节”和“稳定预测”,这是新的概念,但能够完全消除预测误差,从而使太阳能在系统层面上可调度。只要支付一点费用,现在就可以像管理传统的火电发电机一样管理太阳能发电厂或一般的可变可再生能源。
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The future of solar forecasting in China
The current grid code in China in regard to solar forecasting is, in my opinion, underdeveloped, especially in contrast to the rate at which photovoltaics are being installed. As such, explaining the limitations of the grid code and resetting pathways to improve it are thought utilitarian for those scientists and policymakers who are responsible for or aware of the grid code but have not themselves worked on the problem of forecasting. In this perspective article, I should first explain with respect to China's grid code the perceived deficiencies in the current forecasting research and practices, and then outline a five-stage workflow that could completely mitigate the situation. Among other things, the over-reliance on accuracy as the basis for gauging the goodness of forecasts is identified as a root cause for the status quo, and thus, I advocate a holistic forecast verification procedure that encompasses consistency, quality, and value. With that in mind, the proposed workflow for better solar forecasting for grid integration purposes relies on the effective information flow among the weather department, grid operators, and individual plant owners, which is inline with the current grid code. What goes beyond this is that the proposal further introduces a couple of concepts called “hierarchical reconciliation” and “firm forecasting,” which are new but are able to eliminate forecast errors wholly, thus making solar power dispatchable on the system level. With a slight premium incurred, it is now possible to manage solar plants, or variable renewables in general, in the same style as managing conventional fire-powered generators.
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来源期刊
Journal of Renewable and Sustainable Energy
Journal of Renewable and Sustainable Energy ENERGY & FUELS-ENERGY & FUELS
CiteScore
4.30
自引率
12.00%
发文量
122
审稿时长
4.2 months
期刊介绍: The Journal of Renewable and Sustainable Energy (JRSE) is an interdisciplinary, peer-reviewed journal covering all areas of renewable and sustainable energy relevant to the physical science and engineering communities. The interdisciplinary approach of the publication ensures that the editors draw from researchers worldwide in a diverse range of fields. Topics covered include: Renewable energy economics and policy Renewable energy resource assessment Solar energy: photovoltaics, solar thermal energy, solar energy for fuels Wind energy: wind farms, rotors and blades, on- and offshore wind conditions, aerodynamics, fluid dynamics Bioenergy: biofuels, biomass conversion, artificial photosynthesis Distributed energy generation: rooftop PV, distributed fuel cells, distributed wind, micro-hydrogen power generation Power distribution & systems modeling: power electronics and controls, smart grid Energy efficient buildings: smart windows, PV, wind, power management Energy conversion: flexoelectric, piezoelectric, thermoelectric, other technologies Energy storage: batteries, supercapacitors, hydrogen storage, other fuels Fuel cells: proton exchange membrane cells, solid oxide cells, hybrid fuel cells, other Marine and hydroelectric energy: dams, tides, waves, other Transportation: alternative vehicle technologies, plug-in technologies, other Geothermal energy
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