Assessing Determinants and Impact of Possible Russian Influence in the Western Balkan Countries

Abstract For Russia, the Western Balkan region holds significant historical, cultural, and religious ties, and while from a historical point of view the Western Balkans represents an area where Russia tries to be a long-time actor, the relationship between Moscow and Western Balkan states also depends on international factors such as EU integration. Additionally, this relationship is further impacted by current international crises. The objective of this article is to confirm the rise of Russian influence in the Western Balkan countries, and to determine how and to what extent it has impacted the region. For this purpose, a qualitative analysis is conducted with secondary data from many sources, including reports and policy events; the analysis also includes a rhetorical review of public appearances by the political leadership of the Western Balkan countries. First, we consider Russia’s pro-active approach manifested through its economic involvement in the region, and second the reactive approach of the Western Balkan countries due to their disillusionment with the EU, and the Covid-19 pandemic. Further, we argue that Russia’s invasion of Ukraine is a strong catalyst, as it directly affects the relationship of the Western Balkan countries with Russia, the EU, and vice versa.