Resilience and Vulnerabilities Related to Russia’s Invasion of Ukraine: The Emergence of a New Club of Nato and EU Members

Abstract Тhis article compares and contrasts macro- and micro-foundational explanations about disinformation and resilience in Europe as a result of Russia’s war in Ukraine. It presents micro-level data about the shifting public opinion in Europe after Russia’s invasion in Ukraine on Feb 24, 2022 on the topics of NATO and EU support and favorability, sympathy for Ukraine and condemnation of Russia, including support for sanctions against Moscow (Pew Research Center 2021, 2022). The study compares and contrasts traditional macro-level analytical frameworks such as deterrence, institutionalization and adaptation. I argue that a combination of macro- (or institutional) and micro-level factors (associated with the idiosyncrasies of the domestic public opinion) best explain the shifting attitudes since the beginning of the War in Ukraine. Against the backdrop of NATO and the EU’s increased resilience, a new group or sub-club of “vulnerable” allies has emerged among some central and east European nations. The article evaluates different constraints and vulnerabilities and makes recommendations how to reduce misinformation and contestation in these states.