{"title":"英国通胀预测的前因后果分析","authors":"Masako Ikefuji, Jan R Magnus, Takashi Yamagata","doi":"10.1093/ectj/utad021","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"Abstract A Bayesian typically uses data and a prior to produce a posterior. We shall follow the opposite route, using data and the posterior information to reveal the prior. We then apply this theory to inflation forecasts by the Bank of England and the National Institute of Economic and Social Research in an attempt to get some insight into the prior beliefs of the policy makers in these two institutions, especially under the uncertainties about the Brexit referendum, the Covid-19 lockdown, and the Russian invasion of Ukraine.","PeriodicalId":50555,"journal":{"name":"Econometrics Journal","volume":"36 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":2.9000,"publicationDate":"2023-10-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"0","resultStr":"{\"title\":\"Revealing priors from posteriors with an application to inflation forecasting in the UK\",\"authors\":\"Masako Ikefuji, Jan R Magnus, Takashi Yamagata\",\"doi\":\"10.1093/ectj/utad021\",\"DOIUrl\":null,\"url\":null,\"abstract\":\"Abstract A Bayesian typically uses data and a prior to produce a posterior. We shall follow the opposite route, using data and the posterior information to reveal the prior. We then apply this theory to inflation forecasts by the Bank of England and the National Institute of Economic and Social Research in an attempt to get some insight into the prior beliefs of the policy makers in these two institutions, especially under the uncertainties about the Brexit referendum, the Covid-19 lockdown, and the Russian invasion of Ukraine.\",\"PeriodicalId\":50555,\"journal\":{\"name\":\"Econometrics Journal\",\"volume\":\"36 1\",\"pages\":\"0\"},\"PeriodicalIF\":2.9000,\"publicationDate\":\"2023-10-03\",\"publicationTypes\":\"Journal Article\",\"fieldsOfStudy\":null,\"isOpenAccess\":false,\"openAccessPdf\":\"\",\"citationCount\":\"0\",\"resultStr\":null,\"platform\":\"Semanticscholar\",\"paperid\":null,\"PeriodicalName\":\"Econometrics Journal\",\"FirstCategoryId\":\"1085\",\"ListUrlMain\":\"https://doi.org/10.1093/ectj/utad021\",\"RegionNum\":4,\"RegionCategory\":\"经济学\",\"ArticlePicture\":[],\"TitleCN\":null,\"AbstractTextCN\":null,\"PMCID\":null,\"EPubDate\":\"\",\"PubModel\":\"\",\"JCR\":\"Q1\",\"JCRName\":\"ECONOMICS\",\"Score\":null,\"Total\":0}","platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Econometrics Journal","FirstCategoryId":"1085","ListUrlMain":"https://doi.org/10.1093/ectj/utad021","RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q1","JCRName":"ECONOMICS","Score":null,"Total":0}
Revealing priors from posteriors with an application to inflation forecasting in the UK
Abstract A Bayesian typically uses data and a prior to produce a posterior. We shall follow the opposite route, using data and the posterior information to reveal the prior. We then apply this theory to inflation forecasts by the Bank of England and the National Institute of Economic and Social Research in an attempt to get some insight into the prior beliefs of the policy makers in these two institutions, especially under the uncertainties about the Brexit referendum, the Covid-19 lockdown, and the Russian invasion of Ukraine.
期刊介绍：
The Econometrics Journal was established in 1998 by the Royal Economic Society with the aim of creating a top international field journal for the publication of econometric research with a standard of intellectual rigour and academic standing similar to those of the pre-existing top field journals in econometrics. The Econometrics Journal is committed to publishing first-class papers in macro-, micro- and financial econometrics. It is a general journal for econometric research open to all areas of econometrics, whether applied, computational, methodological or theoretical contributions.
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