Simplified scoring system to predict outcome in pediatric patients admitted through emergency department from a tertiary care teaching hospital of North India

Background: Estimating the morbidity and mortality in the emergency department (ED) only allows the pediatricians to assess the prognosis of the patient and plan therapies accordingly. This study was conducted to develop and validate a simple scoring system and establish a correlation between clinical parameters and the outcome of the patient. Subjects and Methods: Nine parameters, i.e., body temperature, respiratory rate, heart rate, blood pressure (BP), pulse oxygen saturation (SpO2), capillary refill time, level of sensorium, presence of seizure, and random blood sugar level, were documented, at the time of admission. Parameters were assigned a score of “0” if it is normal. An abnormality in the above parameters were indicated by a score ranging from 1 to 3. The primary outcome was assessed in terms of death/survival. Results: Out of the total, 57.2% required critical care, and mortality was reported in 14.75% of cases. On univariate analysis, seven clinical parameters were significantly associated with mortality. In multivariate logistic regression analysis, abnormalities in BP, SpO2, and temperature were independent predictors of mortality (P < 0.05). The receiver operating characteristic was 0.798 (95% confidence interval, 0.755–0.836; P < 0.0001) for the outcome of mortality (the predictive ability of score of 79.8%). The patients with scores 1–5, 6–10, and >10 had 4.923, 23.143, and 112.0 higher odds of mortality, respectively. Conclusions: This scoring system predicts the severity of illness and outcome with a sensitivity of 71.19% and specificity of 72.14%, respectively, in the ED. Higher scores predict unfavorable outcomes in these children.