生育决策和生育过渡的溢出效应:来自中国的证据

IF 3.9 2区 经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS Journal of the European Economic Association Pub Date : 2023-04-29 DOI:10.1093/jeea/jvad025
Pauline Rossi, Yun Xiao
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引用次数: 0

摘要

摘要本文利用中国计划生育政策量化和解释生育决策的溢出效应。我们测试了少数民族是否因为政策而降低了他们的生育率,尽管只有占多数的汉族受到出生配额的限制。我们利用政策推出和政策出台前特定年龄生育率水平的变化来构建对汉族生育率的负面冲击的衡量标准。将这一测量与汉族在当地所占比例的变化相结合,我们估计,如果同龄人的平均完成生育率外生减少一个孩子,那么一名妇女将少生0.63个孩子。少数民族的生育率反应是由与汉族的文化接近和更高的教育投资驱动的,这表明溢出效应通过社会和经济渠道发挥作用。这些结果提供了社会乘数可以加速生育转变的证据。
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Spillovers in Childbearing Decisions and Fertility Transitions: Evidence from China
Abstract This article uses China’s family planning policies to quantify and explain spillovers in fertility decisions. We test whether ethnic minorities decreased their fertility in response to the policies, although only the majority ethnic group, the Han Chinese, were subject to birth quotas. We exploit the policy rollout and variation in pre-policy age-specific fertility levels to construct a measure of the negative shock to Han fertility. Combining this measure with variation in the local share of Han, we estimate that a woman gives birth to 0.63 fewer children if the average completed fertility among her peers is exogenously reduced by one child. The fertility response of minorities is driven by cultural proximity with the Han and by higher educational investments, suggesting that spillovers operate through both social and economic channels. These results provide evidence that social multipliers can accelerate fertility transitions.
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来源期刊
CiteScore
7.80
自引率
2.80%
发文量
63
期刊介绍: Journal of the European Economic Association replaces the European Economic Review as the official journal of the association. JEEA publishes articles of the highest scientific quality and is an outlet for theoretical and empirical work with global relevance. The journal is committed to promoting the ambitions of the EEA: the development and application of economics as a science, as well as the communication and exchange between teachers, researchers and students in economics.
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