应用多元线性回归模型估算气象和营养变量影响下哥伦比亚Sabanalarga地区牛增重

JV Rueda-Galofre, YA Mora-García, J Adie-Villafañe
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引用次数: 0

摘要

目前的调查源于哥伦比亚共和国Atlántico部整个领土目前的问题,即畜牧部门目前缺乏可靠的现代化,无法促进肉类生产的规划和盈利,从而导致体重增加。这项研究的主要焦点是忽视了气象和营养因素对牛增重的实际影响。作为一种可能的解决方案,提出采用多元线性回归模型进行统计分析,以牛增重为因变量,在以下自变量的影响下进行研究:两周累积降水量(mm),两周平均日降水量(mm),两周平均日消耗的饲料高度(cm),两周平均日消耗的饲料百分比(%),两周平均消耗的饲料蛋白质百分比(%),两周记录的平均最高温度(°C),两周记录的平均最低温度(°C),两周的平均日温度变化(°C)和两周的平均相对湿度(%)。所有独立数据值均在现场收集。分析后得出结论:有统计证据证实,只有“累计降水量”、“平均降水量”、“平均最低气温”和“相对湿度”这四个自变量对观测到的牛重利润变化有显著影响,建立了只包含上述变量的多元线性回归模型,其余变量丢弃。另一方面,对于所构建的线性回归模型,得到的决定系数R2 = 89.3691%,即对于显著性水平α = 0.05(95%置信水平),这决定了多元线性回归(A)模型对牛平均月增重行为的解释率为89.3691%。因此,得出的结论是,目前的工作使以前的调查的确定具有准确性,其中还得出结论,气象变量直接影响与肉类生产的牛的体重有关的变化。关键词:牛,线性回归,家畜,气象,营养,统计,变量,增重
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Estimation of cattle weight gain under the influence of meteorological and nutritional variables by applying a multiple linear regression model in Sabanalarga, Colombia
The present investigation arose from the current problem in the entire territory of the Department of Atlántico in the Republic of Colombia, in which the livestock sector currently lacks a reliable modernization that contributes to the planning and profitability of meat production, translated into weight gain. The main focus of the study gravitated around the ignorance of the real effect exerted by meteorological and nutritional factors on the weight gain of cattle. As a possible solution, it was proposed to carry out a statistical analysis by means of a multiple linear regression model where cattle weight gain was the dependent variable to study under the influence of the following independent variables: accumulated precipitation for two weeks (mm), average daily precipitation for two weeks (mm), average daily forage height consumed for two weeks (cm), percentage daily average of forage consumed during two weeks (%), average protein percentage of forage consumed during two weeks (%), the average maximum temperature recorded during two weeks (°C), the average minimum temperature recorded during two weeks (°C), average daily temperature variation recorded for two weeks (°C) and average relative humidity recorded for two weeks (%). All independent data values were collected in the field. Once the analysis was carried out, it was concluded that there was statistical evidence to affirm that only the independent variables "accumulated precipitation", "average precipitation", "average minimum temperature" and "relative humidity" significantly influenced the changes observed in profit of cattle weight, being formulated a multiple linear regression model that contained only the mentioned variables, the rest were discarded. On the other hand, for the constructed linear regression model, the coefficient of determination R2 = 89.3691% was obtained, that is, for the significance level α = 0.05 (95% confidence level), this determined that the model of Multiple linear regression (A) explained the behavior of the average monthly cattle weight gain by 89.3691%. It was concluded, therefore, that the present work gives veracity to the determination of previous investigations where it is also concluded that the meteorological variables directly affect the changes associated with the weight of cattle for meat production. Key words: cattle, linear regression, livestock, meteorological, nutritional, statistics, variables, weight gain
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来源期刊
African Journal of Food, Agriculture, Nutrition and Development
African Journal of Food, Agriculture, Nutrition and Development Agricultural and Biological Sciences-Agricultural and Biological Sciences (miscellaneous)
CiteScore
0.90
自引率
0.00%
发文量
124
审稿时长
24 weeks
期刊介绍: The African Journal of Food, Agriculture, Nutrition and Development (AJFAND) is a highly cited and prestigious quarterly peer reviewed journal with a global reputation, published in Kenya by the Africa Scholarly Science Communications Trust (ASSCAT). Our internationally recognized publishing programme covers a wide range of scientific and development disciplines, including agriculture, food, nutrition, environmental management and sustainable development related information.
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