个人收入预期的过度持续偏差及其总体影响

IF 6.3 1区 经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS American Economic Journal-Macroeconomics Pub Date : 2023-10-01 DOI:10.1257/mac.20190056
Filip Rozsypal, Kathrin Schlafmann
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引用次数: 24

摘要

使用微观层面的数据,我们记录了与收入水平相关的家庭收入预期的系统预测误差。我们表明,这些错误可以通过适度偏离理性预期来形式化,其中代理人高估了其收入过程的持久性。然后,我们研究了这些扭曲对消费和储蓄行为的影响,并发现了两种影响。首先,这些扭曲允许一个完全优化的定量模型来匹配流动资产和收入的共同分配。其次,这种偏好改变了边际消费倾向的分布,从而降低了政府刺激政策的有效性。(凝胶d84, e21, d91, e62, g51)
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Overpersistence Bias in Individual Income Expectations and Its Aggregate Implications
Using microlevel data, we document systematic forecast errors in household income expectations that are related to the level of income. We show that these errors can be formalized by a modest deviation from rational expectations, where agents overestimate the persistence of their income process. We then investigate the implications of these distortions on consumption and savings behavior and find two effects. First, these distortions allow an otherwise fully optimization-based quantitative model to match the joint distribution of liquid assets and income. Second, the bias alters the distribution of marginal propensities to consume which makes government stimulus policies less effective. (JEL D84, E21, D91, E62, G51)
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来源期刊
CiteScore
8.20
自引率
1.70%
发文量
58
期刊介绍: American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics focuses on studies of aggregate fluctuations and growth, and the role of policy in that context. Such studies often borrow from and interact with research in other fields, such as monetary theory, industrial organization, finance, labor economics, political economy, public finance, international economics, and development economics. To the extent that they make a contribution to macroeconomics, papers in these fields are also welcome.
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