{"title":"一种预测印度食品批发价格指数的极限学习机方法","authors":"Dipankar Das, Satyajit Chakrabarti","doi":"10.47836/pjst.31.6.30","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"Precise food price forecasting is crucial for any country, and searching for appropriate approach(s) from an assortment of available strategies toward this objective is an open problem. The current Indian Wholesale Price Index (WPI) series contains sixty individual food items in the 'manufacture of food product' category. This work considered the monthly data from April 2011 to June 2022, i.e., one hundred thirty-five months' data of these sixty WPIs. The researchers extracted the linearity, curvature, and autocorrelation features for each WPI. The curvature and linearity-based grouping of these WPIs revealed that the WPIs are heterogeneous. This work proposed an extreme learning machine (ELM) approach for forecasting these WPIs. The present work employed the following twenty-two time-series forecasting techniques: six standard methods (Auto ARIMA, TSLM, SES, DES, TES, and Auto ETS), five neural networks (Auto FFNN, Auto GRNN, Auto MLP, Auto ELM, and proposed ELM), and eleven state-of-art techniques (two ARIMA-ETS based ensembles, an ARIMA-THETAF-TBATS based ensemble, one MLP, and seven LSTM-based models) to identify the best forecasting approach for these WPIs. For the majority of WPIs, the offered ELM attained suitable performance in the case of fifteen months of out-of-sample forecasting. Nearly eighty-seven percent of cases achieved high accuracy (MAPE ≤ ten) and outshined others. Upon accuracy comparison, both forecast-MAPE and forecast-RMSE, between the proposed ELM and others, this paper observed that the proposed ELM's performance is more favorable. This paper's findings imply that the proposed ELM is a promising prospect to offer accurate forecasts of these sixty WPIs.","PeriodicalId":46234,"journal":{"name":"Pertanika Journal of Science and Technology","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.6000,"publicationDate":"2023-10-12","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"0","resultStr":"{\"title\":\"An Extreme Learning Machine Approach for Forecasting the Wholesale Price Index of Food Products in India\",\"authors\":\"Dipankar Das, Satyajit Chakrabarti\",\"doi\":\"10.47836/pjst.31.6.30\",\"DOIUrl\":null,\"url\":null,\"abstract\":\"Precise food price forecasting is crucial for any country, and searching for appropriate approach(s) from an assortment of available strategies toward this objective is an open problem. The current Indian Wholesale Price Index (WPI) series contains sixty individual food items in the 'manufacture of food product' category. This work considered the monthly data from April 2011 to June 2022, i.e., one hundred thirty-five months' data of these sixty WPIs. The researchers extracted the linearity, curvature, and autocorrelation features for each WPI. The curvature and linearity-based grouping of these WPIs revealed that the WPIs are heterogeneous. This work proposed an extreme learning machine (ELM) approach for forecasting these WPIs. The present work employed the following twenty-two time-series forecasting techniques: six standard methods (Auto ARIMA, TSLM, SES, DES, TES, and Auto ETS), five neural networks (Auto FFNN, Auto GRNN, Auto MLP, Auto ELM, and proposed ELM), and eleven state-of-art techniques (two ARIMA-ETS based ensembles, an ARIMA-THETAF-TBATS based ensemble, one MLP, and seven LSTM-based models) to identify the best forecasting approach for these WPIs. For the majority of WPIs, the offered ELM attained suitable performance in the case of fifteen months of out-of-sample forecasting. Nearly eighty-seven percent of cases achieved high accuracy (MAPE ≤ ten) and outshined others. Upon accuracy comparison, both forecast-MAPE and forecast-RMSE, between the proposed ELM and others, this paper observed that the proposed ELM's performance is more favorable. This paper's findings imply that the proposed ELM is a promising prospect to offer accurate forecasts of these sixty WPIs.\",\"PeriodicalId\":46234,\"journal\":{\"name\":\"Pertanika Journal of Science and Technology\",\"volume\":null,\"pages\":null},\"PeriodicalIF\":0.6000,\"publicationDate\":\"2023-10-12\",\"publicationTypes\":\"Journal Article\",\"fieldsOfStudy\":null,\"isOpenAccess\":false,\"openAccessPdf\":\"\",\"citationCount\":\"0\",\"resultStr\":null,\"platform\":\"Semanticscholar\",\"paperid\":null,\"PeriodicalName\":\"Pertanika Journal of Science and Technology\",\"FirstCategoryId\":\"1085\",\"ListUrlMain\":\"https://doi.org/10.47836/pjst.31.6.30\",\"RegionNum\":0,\"RegionCategory\":null,\"ArticlePicture\":[],\"TitleCN\":null,\"AbstractTextCN\":null,\"PMCID\":null,\"EPubDate\":\"\",\"PubModel\":\"\",\"JCR\":\"Q3\",\"JCRName\":\"MULTIDISCIPLINARY SCIENCES\",\"Score\":null,\"Total\":0}","platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Pertanika Journal of Science and Technology","FirstCategoryId":"1085","ListUrlMain":"https://doi.org/10.47836/pjst.31.6.30","RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":null,"ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q3","JCRName":"MULTIDISCIPLINARY SCIENCES","Score":null,"Total":0}
An Extreme Learning Machine Approach for Forecasting the Wholesale Price Index of Food Products in India
Precise food price forecasting is crucial for any country, and searching for appropriate approach(s) from an assortment of available strategies toward this objective is an open problem. The current Indian Wholesale Price Index (WPI) series contains sixty individual food items in the 'manufacture of food product' category. This work considered the monthly data from April 2011 to June 2022, i.e., one hundred thirty-five months' data of these sixty WPIs. The researchers extracted the linearity, curvature, and autocorrelation features for each WPI. The curvature and linearity-based grouping of these WPIs revealed that the WPIs are heterogeneous. This work proposed an extreme learning machine (ELM) approach for forecasting these WPIs. The present work employed the following twenty-two time-series forecasting techniques: six standard methods (Auto ARIMA, TSLM, SES, DES, TES, and Auto ETS), five neural networks (Auto FFNN, Auto GRNN, Auto MLP, Auto ELM, and proposed ELM), and eleven state-of-art techniques (two ARIMA-ETS based ensembles, an ARIMA-THETAF-TBATS based ensemble, one MLP, and seven LSTM-based models) to identify the best forecasting approach for these WPIs. For the majority of WPIs, the offered ELM attained suitable performance in the case of fifteen months of out-of-sample forecasting. Nearly eighty-seven percent of cases achieved high accuracy (MAPE ≤ ten) and outshined others. Upon accuracy comparison, both forecast-MAPE and forecast-RMSE, between the proposed ELM and others, this paper observed that the proposed ELM's performance is more favorable. This paper's findings imply that the proposed ELM is a promising prospect to offer accurate forecasts of these sixty WPIs.
期刊介绍:
Pertanika Journal of Science and Technology aims to provide a forum for high quality research related to science and engineering research. Areas relevant to the scope of the journal include: bioinformatics, bioscience, biotechnology and bio-molecular sciences, chemistry, computer science, ecology, engineering, engineering design, environmental control and management, mathematics and statistics, medicine and health sciences, nanotechnology, physics, safety and emergency management, and related fields of study.