未来排放情景下CORDEX RCMs模式环境中气旋系统的频率和强度

Ashutosh K Sinha, Pradhan Parth Sarthi
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摘要

热带气旋干扰(tcd)是全球最极端的气象灾害之一,对沿海社会的生命和生计造成破坏。随着人们对气候变化的日益关注,在气候模式的代表性浓度路径(representative concentration pathways, rcp)下研究未来情景下的tcd已成为一种必要。目前的研究调查了孟加拉湾(BoB)未来气候中这些气旋系统的频率和强度,孟加拉湾是地球上最容易发生致命tcd的地区之一。为了评估tcd的频率和强度,我们考虑了未来气候条件下区域气候模式REMO2009和RegCM4中的tcd。未来气候条件包括以RCP4.5 (R4.5)为代表的中间排放(IE)途径和以RCP8.5 (R8.5)为代表的高排放(HE)途径。为此,我们考虑了未来几十年2031-2060年(作为近未来气候)在模式水平分辨率0.44°x0.44°(空间分辨率~ 50 km)下的两个rcp,即R4.5下的REMO2009, R4.5下的RegCM4, R8.5下的REMO2009和R8.5下的RegCM4。两种rcp模式下预测的TCD频率都显示出较高的发生频率。此外,我们观察到在几乎所有条件下,10月是主要的TCD活跃月份,5月是次要的。然而,高强度的tcd在5月份更占优势。在未来的排放情景中,预测的tcd除了强度激增外,可能会略有增加。目前的结果可能表明,在未来的几十年里,tcd对位于BoB旁边的沿海社会可能产生更多的破坏性影响。因此,本研究可能有助于制定与气候变化有关的减缓和适应政策。
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Frequency and Intensity of Cyclonic Systems in CORDEX RCMs Model Environment under the Future Emission Scenarios
Tropical Cyclonic Disturbances (TCDs) are one of the most extreme meteorological calamities bringing destruction to life and livelihood in the coastal societies across the globe. With the rising concerns of climate change today, addressing the TCDs in future scenarios under the representative concentration pathways (RCPs) in climate models becomes a necessity. The current study investigates the frequency and intensity of these cyclonic systems in future climate over the Bay of Bengal (BoB) which is one of most vulnerable regions on earth for deadliest TCDs. To assess the TCDs frequency and intensity, we have considered TCDs in regional climate model REMO2009 and RegCM4 in future climatic conditions. The future climatic conditions include the intermediate emissions (IE) represented as RCP4.5 (R4.5) and high emission (HE) pathways i.e., RCP8.5 (R8.5). For this, we have considered the upcoming decades 2031-2060 (as near future climate) at model horizontal resolution 0.44°x0.44° (spatial resolution ~ 50 km) under both RCPs in both models i.e., REMO2009 under R4.5, RegCM4 under R4.5, REMO2009 under R8.5 and RegCM4 under R8.5. The projected TCD frequencies in the models under both the RCPs show high occurrence frequencies. Further, we observe a bimodal characteristic in the occurrence with October as primary TCD active month and May as secondary in almost all conditions. However, highly intense TCDs are more dominant in the month of May. The projected TCDs in future emissions scenarios likely show slightly increased TCDs besides surge in the intensity. The current results possibly suggest more potential destructive impacts due to TCDs on the coastal societies lying beside the BoB in upcoming decades. Thus, the present study is likely to help in framing TCDs associated mitigation and adaptation policies by the apex decision making authorities.
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