严重火灾后树木再生下降和类型转换可能会导致美国西部森林因气候变化而损失很小

IF 3 Q2 METEOROLOGY & ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES Climate Pub Date : 2023-10-30 DOI:10.3390/cli11110214
William L. Baker
{"title":"严重火灾后树木再生下降和类型转换可能会导致美国西部森林因气候变化而损失很小","authors":"William L. Baker","doi":"10.3390/cli11110214","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"Temperate conifer forests stressed by climate change could be lost through tree regeneration decline in the interior of high-severity fires, resulting in type conversion to non-forest vegetation from seed-dispersal limitation, competition, drought stress, and reburns. However, is fire triggering this global change syndrome at a high rate? To find out, I analyzed a worst-case scenario. I calculated fire rotations (FRs, expected period to burn once across an area) across ~56 million ha of forests (~80% of total forest area) in 11 western USA states from 2000 to 2020 for total high-severity fire area, interior area (>90 m inward), and reburned area. Unexpectedly, there was no trend in area burned at high severity from 2000 to 2020 across the four forest types studied. The vulnerable interior area averaged only 21.9% of total high-severity fire area, as 78.1% of burned area was within 90 m of live seed sources where successful tree regeneration is likely. FRs averaged 453 years overall, 2089 years in interiors, and 19,514 years in reburns. Creation of vulnerable interior area in a particular location is thus, on average, a 2000+ year event, like a very rare natural disaster, and reburns that may favor type conversion to non-forest have almost no effect. This means that, from 2021 to 2050 at most, only 3.0–4.2% of total forest area may become a vulnerable interior area, based on a likely high aridity-based climate projection of future fire and a higher scenario, where rates in the exceptional 2020 fire year have become the norm. These findings show that increased management to reduce high-severity fires is not currently needed, as the risk to forests from this global change syndrome is likely quite low up to 2050. Faster and larger disturbances (e.g., severe droughts) are more likely to cause most tree mortality or forest loss that occurs by 2050.","PeriodicalId":37615,"journal":{"name":"Climate","volume":"292 ","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":3.0000,"publicationDate":"2023-10-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"0","resultStr":"{\"title\":\"Tree-Regeneration Decline and Type-Conversion after High-Severity Fires Will Likely Cause Little Western USA Forest Loss from Climate Change\",\"authors\":\"William L. Baker\",\"doi\":\"10.3390/cli11110214\",\"DOIUrl\":null,\"url\":null,\"abstract\":\"Temperate conifer forests stressed by climate change could be lost through tree regeneration decline in the interior of high-severity fires, resulting in type conversion to non-forest vegetation from seed-dispersal limitation, competition, drought stress, and reburns. However, is fire triggering this global change syndrome at a high rate? To find out, I analyzed a worst-case scenario. I calculated fire rotations (FRs, expected period to burn once across an area) across ~56 million ha of forests (~80% of total forest area) in 11 western USA states from 2000 to 2020 for total high-severity fire area, interior area (>90 m inward), and reburned area. Unexpectedly, there was no trend in area burned at high severity from 2000 to 2020 across the four forest types studied. The vulnerable interior area averaged only 21.9% of total high-severity fire area, as 78.1% of burned area was within 90 m of live seed sources where successful tree regeneration is likely. FRs averaged 453 years overall, 2089 years in interiors, and 19,514 years in reburns. Creation of vulnerable interior area in a particular location is thus, on average, a 2000+ year event, like a very rare natural disaster, and reburns that may favor type conversion to non-forest have almost no effect. This means that, from 2021 to 2050 at most, only 3.0–4.2% of total forest area may become a vulnerable interior area, based on a likely high aridity-based climate projection of future fire and a higher scenario, where rates in the exceptional 2020 fire year have become the norm. These findings show that increased management to reduce high-severity fires is not currently needed, as the risk to forests from this global change syndrome is likely quite low up to 2050. Faster and larger disturbances (e.g., severe droughts) are more likely to cause most tree mortality or forest loss that occurs by 2050.\",\"PeriodicalId\":37615,\"journal\":{\"name\":\"Climate\",\"volume\":\"292 \",\"pages\":\"0\"},\"PeriodicalIF\":3.0000,\"publicationDate\":\"2023-10-30\",\"publicationTypes\":\"Journal Article\",\"fieldsOfStudy\":null,\"isOpenAccess\":false,\"openAccessPdf\":\"\",\"citationCount\":\"0\",\"resultStr\":null,\"platform\":\"Semanticscholar\",\"paperid\":null,\"PeriodicalName\":\"Climate\",\"FirstCategoryId\":\"1085\",\"ListUrlMain\":\"https://doi.org/10.3390/cli11110214\",\"RegionNum\":0,\"RegionCategory\":null,\"ArticlePicture\":[],\"TitleCN\":null,\"AbstractTextCN\":null,\"PMCID\":null,\"EPubDate\":\"\",\"PubModel\":\"\",\"JCR\":\"Q2\",\"JCRName\":\"METEOROLOGY & ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES\",\"Score\":null,\"Total\":0}","platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Climate","FirstCategoryId":"1085","ListUrlMain":"https://doi.org/10.3390/cli11110214","RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":null,"ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q2","JCRName":"METEOROLOGY & ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES","Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0

摘要

气候变化胁迫下的温带针叶林可能通过高烈度火灾内部树木更新减少而消失,导致从种子传播限制、竞争、干旱胁迫和再燃向非森林植被的类型转换。然而,火灾是否会以高速率引发这种全球变化综合症?为了找到答案,我分析了最坏的情况。从2000年到2020年,我计算了美国西部11个州约5600万公顷森林(约占森林总面积的80%)的火轮(FRs,整个地区燃烧一次的预期周期),包括总高严重性火灾面积、内部面积(向内90米)和再燃烧面积。出乎意料的是,从2000年到2020年,在研究的四种森林类型中,高度严重烧毁的面积没有趋势。内部脆弱区平均仅占高烈度火灾总面积的21.9%,78.1%的被烧毁面积位于有可能成功更新树木的活种子源90 m范围内。总体平均寿命为453年,内部寿命为2089年,燃烧寿命为19514年。因此,在特定地点创造脆弱的内部区域,平均来说,是2000多年的事件,就像一个非常罕见的自然灾害,而可能有利于类型转换为非森林的重新燃烧几乎没有影响。这意味着,根据对未来火灾的高度干旱气候预测和更高的情景(2020年异常火灾年的发生率已成为常态),从2021年到2050年,最多只有3.0-4.2%的森林总面积可能成为脆弱的内陆地区。这些发现表明,目前不需要加强管理以减少高严重性火灾,因为到2050年,这种全球变化综合症对森林的风险可能相当低。更快和更大的干扰(例如,严重干旱)更有可能导致到2050年发生的大多数树木死亡或森林损失。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
查看原文
分享 分享
微信好友 朋友圈 QQ好友 复制链接
本刊更多论文
Tree-Regeneration Decline and Type-Conversion after High-Severity Fires Will Likely Cause Little Western USA Forest Loss from Climate Change
Temperate conifer forests stressed by climate change could be lost through tree regeneration decline in the interior of high-severity fires, resulting in type conversion to non-forest vegetation from seed-dispersal limitation, competition, drought stress, and reburns. However, is fire triggering this global change syndrome at a high rate? To find out, I analyzed a worst-case scenario. I calculated fire rotations (FRs, expected period to burn once across an area) across ~56 million ha of forests (~80% of total forest area) in 11 western USA states from 2000 to 2020 for total high-severity fire area, interior area (>90 m inward), and reburned area. Unexpectedly, there was no trend in area burned at high severity from 2000 to 2020 across the four forest types studied. The vulnerable interior area averaged only 21.9% of total high-severity fire area, as 78.1% of burned area was within 90 m of live seed sources where successful tree regeneration is likely. FRs averaged 453 years overall, 2089 years in interiors, and 19,514 years in reburns. Creation of vulnerable interior area in a particular location is thus, on average, a 2000+ year event, like a very rare natural disaster, and reburns that may favor type conversion to non-forest have almost no effect. This means that, from 2021 to 2050 at most, only 3.0–4.2% of total forest area may become a vulnerable interior area, based on a likely high aridity-based climate projection of future fire and a higher scenario, where rates in the exceptional 2020 fire year have become the norm. These findings show that increased management to reduce high-severity fires is not currently needed, as the risk to forests from this global change syndrome is likely quite low up to 2050. Faster and larger disturbances (e.g., severe droughts) are more likely to cause most tree mortality or forest loss that occurs by 2050.
求助全文
通过发布文献求助,成功后即可免费获取论文全文。 去求助
来源期刊
Climate
Climate Earth and Planetary Sciences-Atmospheric Science
CiteScore
5.50
自引率
5.40%
发文量
172
审稿时长
11 weeks
期刊介绍: Climate is an independent, international and multi-disciplinary open access journal focusing on climate processes of the earth, covering all scales and involving modelling and observation methods. The scope of Climate includes: Global climate Regional climate Urban climate Multiscale climate Polar climate Tropical climate Climate downscaling Climate process and sensitivity studies Climate dynamics Climate variability (Interseasonal, interannual to decadal) Feedbacks between local, regional, and global climate change Anthropogenic climate change Climate and monsoon Cloud and precipitation predictions Past, present, and projected climate change Hydroclimate.
期刊最新文献
Assessment of Climate Risks, Vulnerability of Urban Health Systems, and Individual Adaptation Strategies in the City of N’Djaména (Chad) Characterisation of Morphological Patterns for Land Surface Temperature Distribution in Urban Environments: An Approach to Identify Priority Areas Climate Risks Resilience Development: A Bibliometric Analysis of Climate-Related Early Warning Systems in Southern Africa Analysis of Climate Variability and Its Implications on Rangelands in the Limpopo Province Equilibrium Climate after Spectral and Bolometric Irradiance Reduction in Grand Solar Minimum Simulations
×
引用
GB/T 7714-2015
复制
MLA
复制
APA
复制
导出至
BibTeX EndNote RefMan NoteFirst NoteExpress
×
×
提示
您的信息不完整,为了账户安全,请先补充。
现在去补充
×
提示
您因"违规操作"
具体请查看互助需知
我知道了
×
提示
现在去查看 取消
×
提示
确定
0
微信
客服QQ
Book学术公众号 扫码关注我们
反馈
×
意见反馈
请填写您的意见或建议
请填写您的手机或邮箱
已复制链接
已复制链接
快去分享给好友吧!
我知道了
×
扫码分享
扫码分享
Book学术官方微信
Book学术文献互助
Book学术文献互助群
群 号:481959085
Book学术
文献互助 智能选刊 最新文献 互助须知 联系我们:info@booksci.cn
Book学术提供免费学术资源搜索服务,方便国内外学者检索中英文文献。致力于提供最便捷和优质的服务体验。
Copyright © 2023 Book学术 All rights reserved.
ghs 京公网安备 11010802042870号 京ICP备2023020795号-1