印度尼西亚肉鸡的短期市场整合

Ana Frasipa, Jojo Jojo
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摘要

快速增长的畜牧业分部门之一是家禽业。除了牛肉、牛奶和鸡蛋外,这个畜牧业分部门还生产肉鸡肉作为战略商品。肉鸡的肉类消费水平最高,其次是土鸡,然后是牛肉。肉鸡肉是一种快速增长的战略商品。本研究采用ECM模型分析确定肉鸡短期市场整合——2015年1月至2020年12月生产者层面肉鸡价格的时间序列数据。该分析的第一步是测试28个省份肉鸡生产者价格数据的平稳性。非平稳的数据将是异方差的(具有自相关)。此外,非平稳的时间序列数据也可能产生伪回归,即两个或多个变量具有因果关系,但两个或多个变量之间没有直接因果关系的理论或逻辑。根据这项调查的结果,没有完全的整合。根据研究结果,怀疑市场上的信息流动薄弱,因此信息传递不完善。这说明印尼的肉鸡市场存在不完全竞争。肉鸡的建设导致肉品市场的寡头垄断。需要政府干预,制定肉鸡肉价格调控政策,重点关注价格龙头市场,并与其他地区协调传导,使肉鸡肉市场结构更具竞争力。
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Integrasi Pasar Jangka Pendek Ayam Broiler di Indonesia
One of the fast-growing livestock subsectors is the poultry sector. This livestock subsector produces broiler chicken meat as a strategic commodity in addition to beef, milk, and eggs. The level of broiler chicken meat consumption is the highest order, followed by native chicken consumption, then beef. Broiler meat is a rapidly growing strategic commodity. This study uses ECM model analysis to determine the short-term market integration in broiler chickens—time series data on broiler chicken prices at the producer level between January 2015 and December 2020. This analysis's first step is testing broiler chicken meat producer price data stationarity in 28 provinces. Data that are not stationary will be heteroscedastic (have autocorrelation). In addition, time series data that are not stationary can also produce spurious regression, a condition in which two or more variables have a causality relationship, but there is no theory or logic underlying the direct causality relationship between two or more of these variables. According to the findings of this investigation, there is no complete integration. According to the study's findings, the weak flow of information in the market is suspected, so the information transmitted is not perfect. This shows that the broiler meat market in Indonesia leads to imperfect competition. The broiler's construction meat commodity market leads to oligopsony. Government intervention is required to establish broiler meat price control policies with the primary consideration of focusing on the price leader market that will be transmitted in harmony with other regions to make the broiler meat market structure more competitive.
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