超越陷阱:财政遗产与中央银行的独立性*

IF 1.5 3区 经济学 Q2 ECONOMICS Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics Pub Date : 2023-10-16 DOI:10.1111/obes.12580
Charles de Beauffort
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引用次数: 0

摘要

我模拟了独立中央银行与财政部之间的随机非合作博弈,并研究了在需求驱动的衰退和偶尔具有约束力的零下限约束条件下的最优时间一致性政策。偏离协调会导致流动性陷阱中的收缩性财政政策。短期政府债务的持续下降改善了价格稳定性和福利,尽管代价是短期内经济衰退加剧。这一政策的基础是,在经济复苏期间,为应对财政引发的通货膨胀,预计会出现货币紧缩的风险。发行长期国债有助于缓冲到期收益率对利率波动的影响,从而降低中央银行独立性对宏观经济结果的相关性。
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Looking Beyond the Trap: Fiscal Legacy and Central Bank Independence*

I model a stochastic non-cooperative game between an independent central bank and a treasury and study optimal time-consistent policy in the context of demand-driven recessions and an occasionally binding zero lower bound constraint. Departing from coordination leads to contractionary fiscal policy in the liquidity trap. The persistent decline in short-term government debt improves price stability and welfare albeit at the expense of a deeper recession in the near term. Underlying this policy is the anticipated risk of monetary tightening during the economic recovery in response to fiscally induced inflation. The issuance of long-term government debt helps to buffer the yield to maturity against interest rate fluctuations, thereby reducing the relevance of central bank independence for macroeconomic outcomes.

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来源期刊
Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics
Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics 管理科学-统计学与概率论
CiteScore
5.10
自引率
0.00%
发文量
54
审稿时长
>12 weeks
期刊介绍: Whilst the Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics publishes papers in all areas of applied economics, emphasis is placed on the practical importance, theoretical interest and policy-relevance of their substantive results, as well as on the methodology and technical competence of the research. Contributions on the topical issues of economic policy and the testing of currently controversial economic theories are encouraged, as well as more empirical research on both developed and developing countries.
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