容易突然停止的经济体中的货币政策

IF 6.3 1区 经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS American Economic Journal-Macroeconomics Pub Date : 2023-10-01 DOI:10.1257/mac.20200201
Louphou Coulibaly
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引用次数: 0

摘要

本文提出了一个简约的理论来解释新兴国家货币政策的周期性,在这个模型中,获得外国融资取决于实际汇率,政府缺乏承诺。自由裁量的货币政策是顺周期的,以减轻突然停止期间汇率贬值对资产负债表的影响。研究发现,实行通胀目地制度可以增加社会福利,减少金融危机发生的频率,尽管会增加危机的严重性。最后,与通胀目制制相比,使用资本管制的能力导致了不那么顺周期性的自由裁量货币政策,并带来了更高的福利收益。(凝胶e31, e32, e44, e52, f31, f33, f38)
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Monetary Policy in Sudden Stop-Prone Economies
This paper proposes a parsimonious theory explaining the cyclicality of monetary policy in emerging countries in a model where access to foreign financing depends on the real exchange rate and the government lacks commitment. The discretionary monetary policy is procyclical to mitigate balance sheet effects originating from exchange rate depreciations during sudden stops. Committing to an inflation targeting regime is found to increase social welfare and reduce the frequency of financial crises despite increasing their severity. Finally, the ability to use capital controls induces a less procyclical discretionary monetary policy and delivers higher welfare gains than an inflation targeting regime. (JEL E31, E32, E44, E52, F31, F33, F38)
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来源期刊
CiteScore
8.20
自引率
1.70%
发文量
58
期刊介绍: American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics focuses on studies of aggregate fluctuations and growth, and the role of policy in that context. Such studies often borrow from and interact with research in other fields, such as monetary theory, industrial organization, finance, labor economics, political economy, public finance, international economics, and development economics. To the extent that they make a contribution to macroeconomics, papers in these fields are also welcome.
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