Risk Factors That Predict Future Onset of Anorexia Nervosa, Bulimia Nervosa, Binge Eating Disorder, and Purging Disorder in Adolescent Girls

Because very few prospective studies have identified risk factors that predicted future onset of threshold/subthreshold anorexia nervosa (AN), bulimia nervosa (BN), binge eating disorder (BED), and purging disorder (PD), we analyzed prospective data collected from a large cohort of adolescent girls followed over an 8-year period to advance knowledge about risk factor specificity. Adolescent girls recruited from middle schools in Texas (N = 492; M age = 13.02 [SD = 0.73], age range = 11–15) completed questionnaires assessing risk factors at baseline and diagnostic interviews assessing eating disorders annually over 8 years. Only low BMI predicted future AN onset. Pressure to be thin, thin-ideal internalization, body dissatisfaction, negative emotionality, low parent support, and modeling of eating pathology predicted future BN onset. Pressure to be thin, thin-ideal internalization, negative emotionality, low parent support, and modeling of eating pathology predicted future BED onset. Pressure to be thin, body dissatisfaction, dietary restraint, low parent support, modeling of eating pathology, and high BMI predicted future PD onset. Predictive effects were medium-to-large. Results support etiological theories of eating disorders that postulate the pursuit of the thin ideal, body dissatisfaction, negative affect, dietary restraint, and interpersonal issues increase risk for most eating disorders. The evidence that girls with low body weight are at risk for AN, whereas girls with high body weight are at risk for PD are novel. Although several risk factors predicted future onset of BN, BED, and PD, results suggest that risk factors for AN are qualitatively distinct and should be investigated further.