{"title":"从复杂性的角度模拟北极航运系统弹性演变的方法","authors":"Yang Liu, Xiaoxue Ma, Weiliang Qiao, Bing Han","doi":"10.1080/03088839.2023.2187472","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"Resilience theory is introduced in the present study to model the capability of the Arctic shipping system to defend against various risks. For this purpose, a novel methodology integrating a Bayesian network (BN), system dynamics (SD), and dissipative structure is proposed to quantitatively describe the dynamic resilience of the Arctic shipping system. The evolution of the system resilience with time is simulated, based on which the graphical results and discussion are devoted to revealing the dynamic evolution mechanism by integrating the three aspects of triggering conditions, priorities, and driving forces. Overall, the proposed resilience evolution model is suitable for complex systems with uncertainty and nonlinearity, and the results show that the proposed methodology can contribute to formulating future strategies and decisions to guarantee the safety of Arctic shipping.","PeriodicalId":18288,"journal":{"name":"Maritime Policy & Management","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":3.7000,"publicationDate":"2023-03-10","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"0","resultStr":"{\"title\":\"A methodology to model the evolution of system resilience for Arctic shipping from the perspective of complexity\",\"authors\":\"Yang Liu, Xiaoxue Ma, Weiliang Qiao, Bing Han\",\"doi\":\"10.1080/03088839.2023.2187472\",\"DOIUrl\":null,\"url\":null,\"abstract\":\"Resilience theory is introduced in the present study to model the capability of the Arctic shipping system to defend against various risks. For this purpose, a novel methodology integrating a Bayesian network (BN), system dynamics (SD), and dissipative structure is proposed to quantitatively describe the dynamic resilience of the Arctic shipping system. The evolution of the system resilience with time is simulated, based on which the graphical results and discussion are devoted to revealing the dynamic evolution mechanism by integrating the three aspects of triggering conditions, priorities, and driving forces. Overall, the proposed resilience evolution model is suitable for complex systems with uncertainty and nonlinearity, and the results show that the proposed methodology can contribute to formulating future strategies and decisions to guarantee the safety of Arctic shipping.\",\"PeriodicalId\":18288,\"journal\":{\"name\":\"Maritime Policy & Management\",\"volume\":null,\"pages\":null},\"PeriodicalIF\":3.7000,\"publicationDate\":\"2023-03-10\",\"publicationTypes\":\"Journal Article\",\"fieldsOfStudy\":null,\"isOpenAccess\":false,\"openAccessPdf\":\"\",\"citationCount\":\"0\",\"resultStr\":null,\"platform\":\"Semanticscholar\",\"paperid\":null,\"PeriodicalName\":\"Maritime Policy & Management\",\"FirstCategoryId\":\"1085\",\"ListUrlMain\":\"https://doi.org/10.1080/03088839.2023.2187472\",\"RegionNum\":3,\"RegionCategory\":\"工程技术\",\"ArticlePicture\":[],\"TitleCN\":null,\"AbstractTextCN\":null,\"PMCID\":null,\"EPubDate\":\"\",\"PubModel\":\"\",\"JCR\":\"Q2\",\"JCRName\":\"TRANSPORTATION\",\"Score\":null,\"Total\":0}","platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Maritime Policy & Management","FirstCategoryId":"1085","ListUrlMain":"https://doi.org/10.1080/03088839.2023.2187472","RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q2","JCRName":"TRANSPORTATION","Score":null,"Total":0}
A methodology to model the evolution of system resilience for Arctic shipping from the perspective of complexity
Resilience theory is introduced in the present study to model the capability of the Arctic shipping system to defend against various risks. For this purpose, a novel methodology integrating a Bayesian network (BN), system dynamics (SD), and dissipative structure is proposed to quantitatively describe the dynamic resilience of the Arctic shipping system. The evolution of the system resilience with time is simulated, based on which the graphical results and discussion are devoted to revealing the dynamic evolution mechanism by integrating the three aspects of triggering conditions, priorities, and driving forces. Overall, the proposed resilience evolution model is suitable for complex systems with uncertainty and nonlinearity, and the results show that the proposed methodology can contribute to formulating future strategies and decisions to guarantee the safety of Arctic shipping.
期刊介绍：
Thirty years ago maritime management decisions were taken on the basis of experience and hunch. Today, the experience is augmented by expert analysis and informed by research findings. Maritime Policy & Management provides the latest findings and analyses, and the opportunity for exchanging views through its Comment Section. A multi-disciplinary and international refereed journal, it brings together papers on the different topics that concern the maritime industry. Emphasis is placed on business, organizational, economic, sociolegal and management topics at port, community, shipping company and shipboard levels. The Journal also provides details of conferences and book reviews.
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