Geospatial distribution variation of the Paris polyphylla in China under climate change scenario

Potential geospatial distribution of species supplies momentous information for species management, especially for some plants with high ecological and economic value. Paris polyphylla Smith is a medicinal plant with analgesic, hemostatic, anti-inflammatory and anti-tumor activities. Herein, its potential geospatial distribution was calculated under climate change conditions based on 299 known coordinates and 8 environmental layers selected responsible for affecting species distribution. These performances are highly accurate in simulating its geospatial distribution regions, with the AUCs of greater than or near to 0.9 for model building and testing. The key factors were the mean temperature of the coldest quarter (bio11) >7.0 ℃ , the most suitable point is 15 ℃ , the annual mean temperature (bio01) >16.25 ℃ , the temperature seasonality (bio04) from 0 to 650 and the annual precipitation (bio12) >1400 mm. The suitable geographic distribution mostly is located in southwest China, south China, central China, east China and northwest China including increased suitable area, namely, Nyingchi in Tibet with a remarkable reduction to the period of 2050s or 2070s, indicating that the suitable area of the species has a continuous decreasing trend. However, between 2050s and 2070s, the suitable area of the specie is almost unchanged for same greenhouse gas emission scenarios. More importantly, four newly discovered distribution areas including western China (middle-south Shaanxi and southeast Gansu), central China (central and western Hunan), southwest China (Main urban area of Chongqing) and east China (eastern and western Zhejiang), were discriminated as lost suitable areas. Consequently, we should strictly monitor these four newly discovered-lost suitable areas in the future.