An analysis of asymmetric effect of federal transfers across Indian states

This study empirically examines the asymmetric effect of federal transfers in India using a panel dataset of 18 states from 2000–2001 to 2019–2020. In mapping the asymmetric effect of federal transfers on subnational spending across the Indian states, we test it in the extended ‘flypaper effect’ framework, examining whether subnational expenditures respond in the same way to changes in federal transfers. To quantify the extent of the asymmetric effect on the subnational expenditure, we employed the panel non-linear ARDL model. The results suggest that subnational spending has a greater asymmetric response to the increase in federal transfers than to a decrease. At the disaggregate level, ten out of 18 states have a fiscal replacement kind of asymmetric effect in any spending specifications. But only three validate it in the capital and development spending, and seven states validating in the non-development expenditure on the revenue accounts. Replacing the cut in federal transfers with other revenue sources that prioritise non-development spending over development spending is problematic.