COVID-19大流行导致的时间偏好变化

IF 1 Q3 ECONOMICS East Asian Economic Review Pub Date : 2023-09-30 DOI:10.11644/kiep.eaer.2023.27.3.422
Inyong Shin
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引用次数: 0

摘要

本文研究了COVID-19的传播与时间偏好的关系。与之前比较大流行之前和期间的时间偏好的研究相反,这项研究通过在两年多的时间内进行的八次调查来估计COVID-19期间的时间偏好。此外,以估计的时间偏好为因变量,对COVID-19新病例数和爆发后的时间进行回归分析。尽管样本量小,但获得了统计上显著的结果,表明随着新病例数量的增加,时间偏好也增加。然而,随着时间的推移,这种影响逐渐减弱,并在2021年底在日本消失。这可能是由于公众对COVID-19的风险以及疫苗和治疗方法的可用性越来越熟悉。尽管2022年新病例显著增加,但时间偏好低于疫情暴发后立即,这反映在私人投资上。2019冠状病毒病爆发后,私人投资与前一年相比下降了12%,但尽管病例数量激增,但投资在2022年仍在恢复。时间偏好的趋势很好地解释了日本私人投资的趋势。
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Changes in Time Preference Caused by the COVID-19 Pandemic
This paper investigates the relationship between the spread of COVID-19 and time preference. In contrast to previous studies that compared time preferences before and during the pandemic, this study estimates time preferences during the COVID-19 period using eight surveys conducted over two years. Additionally, a regression analysis was conducted on the number of new COVID-19 cases and the time elapsed since the outbreak, with estimated time preference as the dependent variable. Despite a small sample size, statistically significant results were obtained, showing that as the number of new cases increased, time preference also increased. However, this effect diminished over time and disappeared by the end of 2021 in Japan. This may be due to the public’s growing familiarity with the risks of COVID-19 and the availability of vaccines and treatments. Despite a significant increase in new cases in 2022, time preference was lower than immediately after the outbreak, and this was reflected in private investments. Immediately after the outbreak of COVID-19, private investments decreased by 12% compared to the previous year, but the investments are returning in 2022 despite the surge in the number of cases. The trend of time preference explains the trend of Japanese private investments very well.
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来源期刊
自引率
12.50%
发文量
10
审稿时长
10 weeks
期刊最新文献
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