太阳活动周期25:前三年

Pub Date : 2023-09-30 DOI:10.12737/stp-93202301
Sergey Yazev, Elena Isaeva, Battulga Hos-Erdene
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引用次数: 0

摘要

我们分析了当前太阳活动周期25发展的前三年(2020-2022)的特征。与第24周期相比,当前周期在太阳黑子群数量(1.5倍)、耀斑数量(1.8倍)和总耀斑指数(1.5倍)上都超过了前一个周期。我们发现太阳黑子群在第24和第25周期的分布在最大面积上是不同的。与太阳活动周期24不同,太阳活动周期25的黑子群数量在下午30时和570至1000时之间的增加最为显著。与第24周期相比,第25周期的南北不对称程度显著降低。这使我们能够根据格内维舍夫-奥尔规则,以及周期可能的单峰性质,预测周期25的高度比周期24的高度增加(增加20 - 50%)。
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Solar activity cycle 25: the first three years
We analyze features of current solar activity cycle 25 for the first three years of its development (2020–2022). Compared to cycle 24, the current cycle is shown to exceed the previous one in the number of sunspot groups (1.5 times), the number of flares (1.8 times), and the total flare index (1.5 times). We have found that distributions of sunspot groups during cycles 24 and 25 differ in maximum area. Solar cycle 25, unlike cycle 24, exhibits the most significant increase in the number of sunspot groups with areas up to 30 pmh and in the interval from 570 to 1000 pmh. In contrast to cycle 24, the degree of north-south asymmetry in cycle 25 is significantly reduced. This allows us to predict an increased height of cycle 25, as compared to cycle 24 (by 20–50 %), in accordance with the Gnevyshev—Ol rule, as well as the possible unimodal nature of the cycle.
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