Management of the grain supply chain during the conflict period: case study Ukraine

The paper highlights the main aspects of designing safety supply chains for grain cargoes and other agricultural commodity delivery. The study's relevance is caused by the fact that periodic port blockades do not allow Ukraine to carry out reliable exports of agricultural products along classical routes. Therefore, there was a need to find new alternatives for exporting agricultural commodities, primarily grain. The study aims to substantiate, describe, structure, and mathematically formalize proposed delivery options and choose the best. The research justifies picking supply chains using automobile and railway transport from Ukraine to the European Union countries. According to three proposed technologies, grain cargoes are exported in batches using containers. The advisability is justified for using each considered delivery option regarding technological aspects. Mathematical modeling, particularly regression analysis, is used to design supply chains. In this case, selecting the best technology is confirmed by corresponding calculations according to designed regression models. The presented option for supplying agricultural commodities is the safest and most reliable but more expensive. However, such logistics will be an excellent solution to reduce the negative consequences of a possible food crisis for the global economy.