中国与欧洲国家商品市场一体化的检验:一个非线性非参数方法

IF 3.7 Q1 ECONOMICS China Economic Journal Pub Date : 2023-11-13 DOI:10.1080/17538963.2023.2277976
Shu-Kam Lee, Lubanski Lam, Kai-Yin Woo
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Although there have been disputes between China and Europe, these results suggest favorable prospects for closer economic cooperation between the two sides and the need for formulation of common policies to pursue an integrated market in the future.KEYWORDS: PPPrank testChinaEuropeJEL CLASSIFICATION: C10F41 AcknowledgmentsWe gratefully acknowledge advice from editors and anonymous referees. The responsibility lies with the authors.Disclosure statementNo potential conflict of interest was reported by the author(s).Notes1. 18 out of 27 EU countries have signed the BRI MOU (Memorandum of Understanding) up to March 2022. 6 of them (Austria, Cyprus, Italy, Greece, Luxembourg and Portugal) are in Western Europe. The others are from East and Central Europe. There are also non-EU BRI members in Europe such as Albania, Serbia and Turkey.2. PPP testing with the mixture of structural breaks and smooth transition adjustments is found in, for example, Bahmani-Oskooee, et al. 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引用次数: 0

摘要

摘要两个经济体之间购买力平价(PPP)的有效性意味着两个经济体的商品市场整合良好。这是经济进一步趋同的先决条件。本研究考察了中国与欧洲国家购买力平价的有效性。由于协整关系的函数形式可能不是精确的或线性的,因此我们采用非参数秩检验进行分析,而不事先说明函数形式。我们还解决了在多变量秩检验中出现的秩问题。结果表明,中国和欧洲国家之间的PPP关系是非线性的,特别是在第二个子样本期间。这表明中国的经济实力正在上升,尤其是在最近十年。尽管中国和欧洲之间一直存在争议,但这些结果表明,双方更密切的经济合作前景良好,并且需要制定共同政策,以追求未来的一体化市场。关键词:pp恶作剧测试中国欧洲jel分类:C10F41致谢感谢编辑和匿名审稿人的建议。责任在于作者。披露声明作者未报告潜在的利益冲突。截至2022年3月,27个欧盟国家中有18个签署了“一带一路”谅解备忘录。其中6个国家(奥地利、塞浦路斯、意大利、希腊、卢森堡和葡萄牙)位于西欧。其他的来自东欧和中欧。在欧洲,也有阿尔巴尼亚、塞尔维亚、土耳其等非欧盟国家加入“一带一路”倡议。例如,Bahmani-Oskooee等人(Citation2013)和He等人(Citation2014)在PPP测试中发现了结构断裂和平稳过渡调整的混合。英国于2020年1月31日正式离开欧盟,但英国和欧盟同意在2020年12月31日之前保持许多事情不变,以便有足够的时间就新贸易协议的条款达成一致(https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-32810887)。在本文中,英国在样本期内仍然被认为是欧盟成员国。请参阅欧盟的官方网站:https://ec.europa.eu/info/euro-0_en,了解更多关于采用Euro.5的细节。模型A的结果(未报告)表明协整的弱证据,这可能是由于秩问题。模型B的函数形式为f1(pt) =get+ f2pt * + ut.7。应用于数据的子样本的其他划分见表4.8。对于爱尔兰,PPP在完整和第一个子样本中被拒绝,但在第二个子样本中被接受。在我们的样本中,与中国有PPP关系的一带一路国家包括奥地利、意大利、拉脱维亚、立陶宛、卢森堡、葡萄牙、匈牙利、阿尔巴尼亚、塞尔维亚和土耳其。其他资料资助本研究获香港特别行政区大学教育资助委员会研究资助局资助(UGC/FDS15/B06/20)。责任在于作者。
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Tests of goods market integration between China and European countries: a nonlinear nonparametric approach
ABSTRACTThe validity of purchasing power parity (PPP) between two economies implies goods markets of the two are well integrated. This is a pre-condition for further economic convergence. This study examines validity of the PPP between China and European countries. Since the functional form of the cointegrating relationship may not be exact or linear, we adopt the nonparametric rank tests for analysis, without prior specification of the functional form. We also address the rank problems that occur in multivariate rank tests. The results indicate strong support for nonlinear PPP relationships between China and European countries, especially during the second subsample period. This indicates China’s rising economic power, particularly in the most recent decade. Although there have been disputes between China and Europe, these results suggest favorable prospects for closer economic cooperation between the two sides and the need for formulation of common policies to pursue an integrated market in the future.KEYWORDS: PPPrank testChinaEuropeJEL CLASSIFICATION: C10F41 AcknowledgmentsWe gratefully acknowledge advice from editors and anonymous referees. The responsibility lies with the authors.Disclosure statementNo potential conflict of interest was reported by the author(s).Notes1. 18 out of 27 EU countries have signed the BRI MOU (Memorandum of Understanding) up to March 2022. 6 of them (Austria, Cyprus, Italy, Greece, Luxembourg and Portugal) are in Western Europe. The others are from East and Central Europe. There are also non-EU BRI members in Europe such as Albania, Serbia and Turkey.2. PPP testing with the mixture of structural breaks and smooth transition adjustments is found in, for example, Bahmani-Oskooee, et al. (Citation2013) and He et al. (Citation2014).3. The UK officially left the EU on 31 January 2020, but the UK and EU agreed to keep many things the same until 31 December 2020, to allow enough time to agree to the terms of a new trade deal (https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-32810887). In this paper, the UK is still considered an EU member in the sample period.4. Refer to the official website of the European Union available at: https://ec.europa.eu/info/euro-0_en for more details on adoption of the Euro.5. The results for Model A (unreported) indicate weak evidence of cointegration, and this may be due to the rank problem.6. The functional form for Model B becomes f1(pt) =get+ f2pt∗+ ut.7. Other divisions of subsamples applied to the data can be found in Table 4.8. For Ireland, PPP is rejected during the full and the first subsample but is accepted in the second subsample.9. The BRI countries in our sample that have PPP with China include Austria, Italy, Latvia, Lithuania, Luxembourg, Portugal, Hungary, Albania, Serbia and Turkey only.Additional informationFundingThis work was supported by the Research Grants Council, University Grants Committee of the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region (UGC/FDS15/B06/20). The responsibility lies with the authors.
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CiteScore
5.60
自引率
3.00%
发文量
20
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